<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

Social Issues

The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

(From left to right) Peter Breuer, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Mission Chief for Sri Lanka, speaks next to Krishna Srinivasan, the Director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, during a press conference in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on May 15, 2023. 

Economics

Politics

The IMF will likely approve the next tranche of Sri Lanka's $2.9 billion bailout. But if Colombo fails to reach a deal with its bondholders in the coming months, future disbursements may be at risk.

What's at Stake As Sri Lanka Struggles To Restructure Its Debt

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On Geopolitics

United States

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Indonesia

Japan

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North Korea

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

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A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

Iran

A welcoming billboard displaying an image of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (left) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is seen along a street in Karachi, Pakistan, on April 22, 2024. 

Energy

Pakistan and Iran's embattled pipeline project, which has faced delays amid funding issues and U.S. sanction concerns, could impede recent efforts to boost bilateral cooperation.

For Pakistan and Iran, a Delayed Pipeline Could Undermine Improved Relations

Bharatiya Janata Party flags on April 15 in the Indian city of Raipur. If India's ruling BJP party remains in power after the country's April 19-June 1 general election, policy continuity regarding efforts to increase employment, build infrastructure and implement controversial social policies nationally that trigger social unrest can be expected. 

If the ruling party in fact wins, policy continuity regarding employment, infrastructure and controversial social policies that trigger social unrest can be expected.

India's 2024 Elections Will Likely Generate Policy Continuity

Brazil

Colombia

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Germany

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

India's 2024 general elections, which will be held from April 19 to June 1, will likely result in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party retaining control of the government.

2024 Elections: India

Snapshots

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

Media

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

Forecast Webcast

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Then-Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (right) and then-Pakistani Finance Minister Ishaq Dar (left) address a press conference in Lahore on June 30, 2023, after the signing of a staff-level agreement with the IMF.

Islamabad will likely secure the final tranche of its current stand-by arrangement, and potentially a new IMF bailout, but the government may struggle to enact related economic reforms.

The Outlook of Pakistan-IMF Engagement

Ukraine

Russia

Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following a shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, Russia, on March 22, 2024. 

While the attack was likely conducted by Islamist extremists or North Caucasian groups, the Kremlin will nonetheless use the mass casualty incident to further villainize Ukraine and the West, and expand its war efforts against Kyiv.

What To Make of the Deadly Terrorist Attack in Moscow

India's Supreme Court granted interim bail to opposition Aam Aadmi Party leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal through June 1, Hindustan Times reported on May 10.

India: Supreme Court Grants Interim Bail to Opposition Leader, Allowing Him To Campaign

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined new goals to increase farmers' incomes by 50% by 2030, Reuters reported on May 8.

India: Modi Formulates New Goals To Increase Farmers' Incomes

In the third phase of India's seven-phase general election, voters cast their ballots across 11 states for 93 seats in the Lok Sabha, or lower house of Parliament, AP reported on May 7.

India: Third Phase of General Election Begins Amid Low Voter Turnout

The Afghan Taliban began destroying poppy fields in the northeastern province of Badakhshan on May 3, triggering local resistance and around two days of violent protests in which Afghan Taliban fighters fired their weapons to disperse protesters, killing two people, Voice of America reported on May 5.

Afghanistan: Enforcement of Poppy Ban Triggers Rare Violent Protests in Northeast

Canada

Canadian police on May 3 arrested and charged three Indian nationals for the June 2023 killing of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia and said they were investigating whether the men had ties to the Indian government, AP reported on May 4. 

Canada, India: Canada Arrests, Charges Three Indian Nationals for 2023 Murder of Sikh Separatist

Taiwan

U.S. Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro said the U.S. military planned to conduct maintenance on six naval ships in international shipyards in fiscal year 2025 in preparation for wartime contingency repairs in the Indo-Pacific, the South China Morning Post reported on May 3.

U.S., Indo-Pacific: U.S. To Expand Overseas Ship Repair, Bolster Maritime Interoperability

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

The Afghan Taliban, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan agreed to build a logistics hub in the western Afghan province of Herat for regional exports, Reuters reported on May 2. 

Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Agree With Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on Logistics Hub

The International Monetary Fund's executive board approved the second review of Pakistan's approximately $3 billion stand-by arrangement, paving the way for the disbursement of the final tranche of approximately $1.1 billion, Reuters reported on April 29. 

Pakistan: IMF Executive Board Approves Second and Final Review of Bailout, Disbursing $1.1B

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Supreme Court Grants Interim Bail to Opposition Leader, Allowing Him To Campaign

India: Modi Formulates New Goals To Increase Farmers' Incomes

India: Third Phase of General Election Begins Amid Low Voter Turnout

Afghanistan: Enforcement of Poppy Ban Triggers Rare Violent Protests in Northeast

Canada, India: Canada Arrests, Charges Three Indian Nationals for 2023 Murder of Sikh Separatist

U.S., Indo-Pacific: U.S. To Expand Overseas Ship Repair, Bolster Maritime Interoperability

Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Agree With Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on Logistics Hub

Pakistan: IMF Executive Board Approves Second and Final Review of Bailout, Disbursing $1.1B

Forecasts

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