South Africa

Australia

United Kingdom

Economics

Politics

South Africa's Competition Commission said Australian mining company BHP's takeover of British mining company Anglo American's South African operations would require a mandatory merger notification, the Financial Times reported on May 3. 

South Africa: Competition Commission To Manage BHP Takeover of Anglo American

Military & Security

The South African police are investigating allegations that former President Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK, party forged supporters' signatures to register for the May 29 general election, AP reported on April 30.

South Africa: Police Probe Alleged Signature Forgery by Zuma's MK Party

Australian multinational mining company BHP is consulting investors to issue a revised proposal to acquire British multinational mining company Anglo American after the company's first takeover bid was rejected on April 26, Reuters reported on April 29.

South Africa: BHP Consults Investors Ahead of Likely New Bid in Anglo American 

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mozambique

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa extended the deployment of 1,495 members of the South African National Defense Force stationed in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province under the Southern African Development Community, or SADC, from April 16 to Dec. 31, Reuters reported on April 24. 

South Africa: Ramaphosa Extends Troop Mandates in Mozambique and Congo

Rwanda

Energy

South Africa completed the withdrawal of its 1,500 troops deployed to Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado region as part of the Southern African Development Community's military mission in Mozambique, or SAMIM, Zitamar News reported on April 16. 

Mozambique: South Africa Completes Withdrawal From Cabo Delgado

South Africa's Independent Electoral Commission, or IEC, asked the Constitutional Court to provide clarity on the Electoral Court's ruling that allows former President Jacob Zuma to run on the Umkhonto WeSizwe (MK) party candidate list, Bloomberg reported on April 12.

South Africa: Electoral Commission Approaches Constitutional Court on Zuma Candidacy 

South Africa's Independent Electoral Commission, or IEC, demanded that the country's Electoral Court explain its decision to allow former President Jacob Zuma to run on the uMkhonto weSizwe party, or MK, list in the country's May 29 general election, the South African Broadcasting Corp. reported on April 10.

South Africa: Electoral Commission Requests Clarifications From Electoral Court in Zuma Case

South Africa's Electoral Court overturned the Electoral Commission's previous decision to disqualify former President Jacob Zuma from running in the May 29 parliamentary elections, Bloomberg reported on April 9.

South Africa: Electoral Court Overturns Former President Zuma's Election Disqualification

Assessments

The skyline of Johannesburg, South Africa, is seen on April 19, 2023.

The government that emerges from the May 29 election will probably fail to address the structural factors holding back South Africa's economy, but a financial crisis remains unlikely for now.

Assessing South Africa's Post-Election Economic Outlook

South Africa's May general election will be the country's most competitive vote in 30 years, testing the dominance of the ruling African National Congress.

2024 Elections: South Africa

United States

Turkey

China

Indonesia

Europe

An APK rally March 29, 2024, in Istanbul. Nationwide municipal elections occur March 31, in which the ruling AKP will likely try to regain the mayoralties of large cities including Ankara and Istanbul.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkish Municipal Elections, Blinken Goes to Europe

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

Chad

Ghana

Senegal

Supporters of former South African President Jacob Zuma sing and chant in Tembisa, South Africa, during a recruitment drive for Zuma's newly launched uMkhonto we Sizwe party on Jan. 21, 2024.

Of the 13 countries holding elections this year, Senegal, South Africa, Chad, Ghana and South Sudan's ballots will likely be the most politically and economically impactful.

Previewing Sub-Saharan Africa's 2024 Elections

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Argentina

Mexico

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Hong Kong SAR, China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

France

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Russia

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Ethiopia

Brazil

Egypt

Iran

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Belgium

Leaders at the closing day of the BRICS Summit on Aug. 24, 2023, in Johannesburg. On Jan. 1, BRICS will admit Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia after agreeing at an August summit to expand its membership.

The Weekly Rundown: Taiwan's Election Media Blackout, BRICS Expansion

Snapshots

Angola

Republic of the Congo

Zambia

U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with President Joao Lourenco of Angola during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House on Nov. 30, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

U.S.-China Relations

A new supply line could increase access to Central African mining exports and strengthen Western influence in the region, but several constraints stand in the way.

Washington's 'Flagship' Africa Project: A New Supply Line for Central African Mining Exports

Israeli tanks on the border with Lebanon on Oct. 26, 2023, in Israel amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: A Possible Middle Eastern Escalation, an IMF Team Visits Pakistan

Zimbabwe

Ecuador

Guatemala

Supporters of Guatemalan presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo attend a campaign rally in the Central Square in Guatemala City, Guatemala, on Aug. 16, 2023. 

The Weekly Rundown: Lunar Landings, the BRICS Summit and a Host of Elections

From left to right, foreign officials from China, Brazil, South Africa, Russia and India (the five BRICS countries) hold a press conference in Cape Town on June 1, 2023, ahead of the bloc's summit in August. 

Internal divisions will slow plans for membership expansion and increased trade at the upcoming BRICS summit.

Internal Divisions Ensure BRICS' Expansion Will Remain Slow

Media

Sudan

Chile

Germany

Afghanistan

Podcasts

Cyber

Social Issues

What Q3 security risks should companies expect and prepare for?

Essential Geopolitics: An Overview of RANE's Q3 Forecast

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (center) delivers his 2023 state-of-the-nation address at the Cape Town City Hall on Feb. 9, 2023. 

The ruling party's waning support will limit its ability to enact structural economic reforms, portending persistently low growth through the 2024 election and beyond.

No End in Sight to South Africa's Economic Stagnation

At the tip of the African continent lies South Africa. The country borders Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique and also surrounds Lesotho and much of Swaziland. South Africa's current borders were consolidated by the British in 1910 as the Union of South Africa, following the Boer Wars between the United Kingdom and Dutch settlers.    The Drakensberg and Karoo mountains rim the coastlines, separating a dry interior from a coastal region, which captures the majority of the country's rainfall.    Two key factors distinguish South Africa from much of the rest of the continent. The country has a malaria-free climate, which attracted European settlers. It also has abundant mineral resources — including gold, diamonds, coal and platinum — in the north-central interior.    This mining area is the geographic core of South Africa — encompassing the cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria and adjoining parts of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West and Free State provinces. This core is connected by road and rail to a series of ports — from Cape Town to Port Elizabeth, to Durban and Richards Bay — that carry goods and resources to and from Gauteng.    The wealth generated there underwrites financial, agricultural, industrial and manufacturing activity in other parts of South Africa.    South Africa's geographic challenge is to protect the extraction of natural resources in its interior while striving to maintain sufficient employment. It must then find ways to disperse enough wealth to appease its populations in the Gauteng and peripheral zones of the country.

SITUATION REPORTS

South Africa: Competition Commission To Manage BHP Takeover of Anglo American

South Africa: Police Probe Alleged Signature Forgery by Zuma's MK Party

South Africa: BHP Consults Investors Ahead of Likely New Bid in Anglo American

South Africa: Ramaphosa Extends Troop Mandates in Mozambique and Congo

Mozambique: South Africa Completes Withdrawal From Cabo Delgado

South Africa: Electoral Commission Approaches Constitutional Court on Zuma Candidacy

South Africa: Electoral Commission Requests Clarifications From Electoral Court in Zuma Case

South Africa: Electoral Court Overturns Former President Zuma's Election Disqualification

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