Democratic Republic of the Congo

Uganda

Economics

Military & Security

High-level military officials from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda agreed to increase funding for joint counterterrorism efforts against the Islamic State-backed Allied Democratic Forces, or ADF, Radio Okapi reported on May 8.

Congo, Uganda: Armies To Allocate More Funding To Boost Operations Against ADF

China

Energy

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni stated on X, formerly Twitter, that Beijing has shown interest in working with China's national financial institutions to support the East African Crude Oil Pipeline project, Bloomberg reported on April 5.

China, Uganda: Oil Pipeline Shows Beijing's Energy, Belt and Road Priorities

Politics

Social Issues

Uganda's Constitutional Court upheld most of the Anti-Homosexuality Act 2023, stating that it aligns with national values and the constitution, Reuters reported on April 3. 

Uganda: Court Upholds Anti-LGBTQ+ Law

Kenya

Tanzania

Uganda’s energy ministry announced that it had reached an agreement with Kenya whereby Kenyan authorities would grant state-owned Uganda National Oil Co., or UNOC, a license to import petroleum products via the port of Mombasa, Reuters reported on March 28.

Kenya, Uganda: Governments To Resolve Oil Import Dispute

Ethiopia

Russia

Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni appointed his son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as head of the military amid a significant Cabinet reshuffle that saw five ministers dismissed, Africanews reported on March 22.

Uganda: President Appoints Son as Top Army Commander

South Sudan

Sudan

Head of the U.N. Mission in South Sudan Nicholas Haysom warned that Sudan’s civil war was spilling over into South Sudan, the Sudan Tribune reported on Feb. 20. 

Sudan, South Sudan: U.N. Chief Warns Sudan's Civil War Spilling Over Into South Sudan 

Somalia

United Arab Emirates

A Somali soldier opened fire on military personnel at Mogadishu's General Gordon Military Base, killing at least nine military personnel including four UAE military personnel and one Bahraini officer, Reuters and Al Jazeera reported separately on Feb. 11.

Somalia, UAE: Al Shabaab Claims Responsibility for Attack on UAE Training Camp in Mogadishu 

The World Bank will not give new loans to Uganda due to the government's enactment of harsh anti-LGBTQ+ legislation, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 9.

Uganda: World Bank Stops New Funding to Uganda Over Anti-LGBTQ+ Law

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Cote d'Ivoire

Eritrea

Rwanda

Senegal

Togo

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

Snapshots

A Ugandan citizen watches a television broadcast of lawmakers holding a session on an anti-LGBTQ bill in the country's parliament on March 21, 2023. 

The likely adoption of one of the world's harshest anti-LGBTQ laws could deprive Uganda of critical Western aid and investment by raising the reputational risks of engaging with the country.

Uganda's Anti-LGBTQ Bill Risks Deterring Foreign Aid and Business

Brazil

United States

South Korea

Portugal

Spain

U.S. and South Korean flags are waved March 10, 2015, in Seoul, South Korea.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Meets Biden, Lula Pushes Spain on EU Trade

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Republic of the Congo

France

During the final day of the African tour that also included visits to Cameroon and Benin, French President Emmanuel Macron (left) waves to a crowd through the roof of a car in Bissau with Guinea-Bissau's President Umaro Sissoco Embalo. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The French president and Russian foreign minister’s separate trips to Central African countries highlight Paris and Moscow's growing interest in the region, with both leaders pledging increased security and investments.

Making Sense of France and Russia’s High-Level Visits to Africa

Burundi

The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, speaks during the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb. 5, 2022.

Security

East African Integration

Congo's ports will grant the East African Community access to the Atlantic Ocean, but the country's overall poor infrastructure and security will limit the volume of trade with other bloc members. 

How Congo's EAC Membership Will Alter Trade in East Africa

Media

Israel

Podcasts

Cyber

Uganda's recent suspected use of spyware to target U.S. diplomats highlights a recent trend of small and medium states expanding their SIGINT capabilities.

Essential Geopolitics: The SIGINT Threat and International Espionage

Columns

On Security

El Salvador

Nicaragua

Hong Kong SAR, China

Belarus

Turkey

A demonstration against a Polish parliamentary vote seen as impinging on press freedoms Dec. 19, 2021, in Warsaw, Poland. Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

Political Instability & Social Unrest

U.S.-China Relations

Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

The Corporate Implications of Cracking Down on Domestic Dissent

The Jihadist Wars

The Nov. 16 bombings mark a significant escalation in terrorist activity in Uganda.

Essential Geopolitics: Coordinated Suicide Attacks Hit Uganda

Guidance

Bolivia

Cuba

Ecuador

Peru

Japan

Philippines

Iran

India

A motorist passes a sign for the 8th Congress of the Cuban Communist Party on April 6, 2021, in Havana. The Party will convene April 16-19 against the backdrop of broader Cuban discontent over a deteriorating economic situation,

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Economic Data From China and More Indirect U.S.-Iran Talks

Germany

Members of the National Guard and the District of Columbia police keep a small group of protesters at bay after thousands of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol building following a 'Stop the Steal' rally on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. Large technology firms' recent content-moderation decisions will add to long-standing debates regarding their influence over online speech, possibly accelerating global regulatory action.

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Large technology firms' recent content-moderation decisions will add to long-standing debates regarding their influence over online speech, possibly accelerating global regulatory action.

Big Tech's Actions After the U.S. Capitol Siege Renew Debate Over Its Power

COVID-19

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

The ruling party’s failure to address the grievances of young Ugandans has paved the way for a pop star’s presidential candidacy, as well as years of political unrest.

Is Uganda's 30-Year Run of Political Stability Nearing an End?

Thailand

Denmark

United Kingdom

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Georgia

Lebanon

Relatives of the five Israeli victims of a suicide blast that targeted a bus of tourists in Bulgaria mourn in Sofia on Aug. 28, 2012.

Iran's Arc of Influence

Recent history indicates that despite its global networks and ambitions, Iran is a far more formidable threat closer to home. 

Iran Will Find Retaliating Against the U.S. Easier in the Middle East

Stratfor Threat Lens

Landlocked Uganda is bordered by South Sudan to the north, Kenya to the east, Rwanda and Tanzania to the south, and the Democratic Republic of Congo to the west. The East African country has been recognized as one of the birthplaces of humanity, and its history stretches long into the past. In fact, its recent political trajectory was profoundly influenced by British exploration and colonization at the end of the 19th century. However, its geography and ethnic makeup have had a much deeper effect than British colonialism. For one, the country contains a significant portion of Lake Victoria, Africa’s largest lake and the world’s largest tropical lake. The lake has provided a transport artery for regional residents for hundreds &mdash; if not thousands &mdash; of years, helping facilitate trade and fasten more shared identities in this region as opposed perhaps to other African regions.    The lake's trade benefits do not make up for the country's lack of easy access to an ocean and the international markets beyond, a situation that increases the costs of imports and exports to provide one of Uganda's chief challenges. In order to help manage this issue, Uganda must maintain positive relations with at least one of its ocean-facing neighbors, Kenya and Tanzania. This helps to explain why the Ugandan government has been a firm believer in regional integration into the East African Community. The fostering of closer ties helps bind the countries closer together in terms of political and economic relations. Relatedly, the shared ties and foreign interest in resources and goods of the region have helped spur infrastructure development in recent years, from which Uganda has benefited.    In addition to external challenges, Uganda must manage its diverse internal ethnographic makeup. The country is home to many ethnic and linguistic groups, providing an additional difficulty in governance. The country’s leaders have not always managed this diversity well, with ethnic clashes and outright cleansing in the past. To overcome these issues, the country has more often than not turned to strongman rule to oversee the political system.

The Bwindi Impenetrable Forest National Park in southwestern Uganda, at the borders of Uganda, Congo and Rwanda. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Congo, Uganda: Armies To Allocate More Funding To Boost Operations Against ADF

China, Uganda: Oil Pipeline Shows Beijing's Energy, Belt and Road Priorities

Uganda: Court Upholds Anti-LGBTQ+ Law

Kenya, Uganda: Governments To Resolve Oil Import Dispute

Uganda: President Appoints Son as Top Army Commander

Sudan, South Sudan: U.N. Chief Warns Sudan's Civil War Spilling Over Into South Sudan

Somalia, UAE: Al Shabaab Claims Responsibility for Attack on UAE Training Camp in Mogadishu

Uganda: World Bank Stops New Funding to Uganda Over Anti-LGBTQ+ Law

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