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Israel-Hamas Conflict

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The United States paused a shipment of around 3,000 heavy bombs to Israel over concern that Israel might use them in the country's offensive in Gaza's southern city of Rafah, ABC News reported on May 8, citing a Pentagon official.

U.S., Israel: U.S. Holds Up Arms Delivery Over Israel's Rafah Offensive

Israel rejected Hamas’ cease-fire proposal and authorized the start of the long-planned operation to invade Gaza's southern city of Rafah, with Israeli tanks reportedly moving into the city's outskirts, The Times of Israel reported on May 6.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Rejects Cease-Fire Proposal, Begins Rafah Offensive

The Israel Defense Forces ordered an estimated 100,000 Palestinian civilians to evacuate from the outskirts of Rafah in southern Gaza after Israel-Hamas cease-fire negotiations failed to progress in Cairo, Egypt, NBC reported on May 6.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Orders Civilian Evacuations From Rafah as Cease-Fire Negotiations Stall

Iran

Syria

Israel struck a building on the outskirts of Damascus, injuring 8 Syrian soldiers on May 2, Reuters reported May 3. 

Israel, Syria: Israel Strikes Syria for the First Time Since April 1

The United States announced that it had begun constructing a temporary pier in Gaza to support the influx and distribution of humanitarian aid, adding that the pier will likely begin operations in early May with the use of third-country lorry drivers and the Israel Defense Forces providing security, The National reported on April 25.

U.S., Israel: Construction Begins on Temporary U.S. Humanitarian Pier in Gaza

Hamas official and Palestinian Legislative Council member Khalil al-Hayya said Hamas would consider transforming into a disarmed political party in exchange for a Palestinian state, while also offering a five-year truce with Israel as a presage to such a process, AP reported on April 25. 

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Official Suggests Transforming Into a Political Party in Exchange for a Palestinian State

Satellite photos showed undetermined groups constructing tents around the Gaza Strip's Israeli-controlled southern city of Khan Younis, likely in preparation for a new wave of civilian evacuations ahead of Israel's attack on the nearby city of Rafah, AP reported on April 23.

Israel, Gaza: Satellite Photos Reveal Likely Preparations for Rafah Offensive

Oman

Qatar

The Palestinian militant group Hamas contacted Oman and an unnamed regional country about relocating its political leaders from Doha, Qatar, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 20.

Qatar: Hamas Reportedly Looking To Relocate Political Bureau

Assessments

A picture taken on May 6, 2024, shows smoke billowing following a bombardment east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. 

If Hamas doesn't agree to a more favorable cease-fire deal, Israel will likely expand its push into Gaza's southernmost city at the risk of exacerbating domestic and international blowback.

With the Capture of a Border Crossing, Israel's Rafah Operation Has Begun

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 29 at a Joint Ministerial Meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council-U.S. Strategic Partnership in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Riyadh will continue to progressively advance diplomatic relations with Israel and deepen defense ties with the United States, while maintaining its cautious outreach to Iran.

Riyadh will continue to progressively advance diplomatic relations with Israel and deepen defense ties with the United States, while maintaining its cautious outreach to Iran.

Assessing Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy During the Israel-Hamas War and Beyond

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Argentina

Bolivia

Peru

China

France

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife, Begona Gomez, arrive Oct. 5, 2023, at the Carlos V Palace at the Alhambra in Granada, Spain. Sanchez is expected to make an announcement about his political future on April 29 following his surprise decision April 25 to suspend public appearances after a court in Madrid announced an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling and corruption.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South American Foreign Ministers Visit China, the Spanish Premier Announces His Political Future

Snapshots

Morocco

Moroccan Air Force mechanics examine an F-16 fighter jet at an airbase in Ben Guerir, about 58 kilometers north of Marrakesh, Morocco, on June 14, 2021. 

Pressure from its pro-Palestinian population will not deter Morocco from using Israeli technology to expand its domestic weapons capabilities, as Rabat seeks to catch up to Algeria’s military power and position itself as an arms exporter.

Despite the Gaza War, Morocco-Israel Defense Ties Look Set to Deepen

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Iraq

Jordan

The Jordanian flag. Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan's Alignment With Israel Will Put It in Iran's Crosshairs

U.S.-Iran Relations

Lebanon

Iran's large missile and drone attack will prompt an Israeli retaliation that will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing future similar attacks on Israel, but in doing so, Israel risks expanding the conflict, further sinking the region into turmoil and possibly dragging in the United States.

How Israel Might Respond to the Iranian Attack

Brazil

Colombia

Germany

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

A picture taken from the southern Lebanese village of Alma al-Shaab shows smoke rising from an Israeli outpost after a rocket attack by Hezbollah fighters on April 6, 2024.

As the Gaza conflict winds down, both sides will likely eventually seek a diplomatic resolution. But their expanding tit-for-tat exchanges nonetheless risk triggering a wider war.

Israel and Hezbollah Prefer Diplomacy, but Risks of War Remain Elevated

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

Emergency and security personnel search rubble at the site of an April 1, 2024, strike on the Iranian Consulate in Syria's capital of Damascus. Iran will try to minimize the risk of escalation, but doing so will fail to deter Israel from further attacks on Iranian targets in the region. 

Iran will try to minimize the risk of escalation, but doing so will fail to deter Israel from further attacks on Iranian targets in the region. 

Iran's Response to Israel's Audacious Damascus Strike Will Not Deter Escalation

Israel-Hamas Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Israel: U.S. Holds Up Arms Delivery Over Israel's Rafah Offensive

Israel, Gaza: Israel Rejects Cease-Fire Proposal, Begins Rafah Offensive

Israel, Gaza: Israel Orders Civilian Evacuations From Rafah as Cease-Fire Negotiations Stall

Israel, Syria: Israel Strikes Syria for the First Time Since April 1

U.S., Israel: Construction Begins on Temporary U.S. Humanitarian Pier in Gaza

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Official Suggests Transforming Into a Political Party in Exchange for a Palestinian State

Israel, Gaza: Satellite Photos Reveal Likely Preparations for Rafah Offensive

Qatar: Hamas Reportedly Looking To Relocate Political Bureau

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