ASSESSMENTS

Israel and Hezbollah Prefer Diplomacy, but Risks of War Remain Elevated

Apr 10, 2024 | 18:35 GMT

A picture taken from the southern Lebanese village of Alma al-Shaab shows smoke rising from an Israeli outpost after a rocket attack by Hezbollah fighters on April 6, 2024.
A picture taken from the southern Lebanese village of Alma al-Shaab shows smoke rising from an Israeli outpost after a rocket attack by Hezbollah fighters on April 6, 2024.

(KAWNAT HAJU/AFP via Getty Images)

Despite elevated risks of a wider war and expanded tit-for-tat military exchanges, Israel and Hezbollah will likely opt to eventually resolve the border crisis diplomatically as the conflict in Gaza winds down, potentially resulting in a security zone on their shared borders. In a bid to signal openness to a diplomatic solution, and to keep diplomatic initiatives afloat, the Lebanese government submitted a written answer to France's concrete plan for a truce between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Israel, Reuters reported on March 15. Lebanon said that the plan is a significant step toward achieving a truce on the Lebanese-Israeli border, without discussing the details of the proposal. However, both Hezbollah and Israel are unlikely to accept the proposal in its current form until the war in Gaza ends. Amid expanding cross-border skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel and increasing saber rattling, France submitted the first concrete de-escalation proposal on...

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