For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Israel and Iran have now broken the taboo of directly attacking one another's territory, but, remarkably, they have once more avoided climbing an escalation ladder neither wants. The more they believe this, however, the more they might find themselves trapped in the very war they hope to avoid. The shape of their mutual deterrence has been altered but not yet broken, and it seems that the Middle East, though fragile and riven with conflict, has deeper anchors that pull its prime rivals away from much-feared open wars. Doubtless, both Iran and Israel understand how close they came, but also, almost assuredly, they have realized that catastrophic accidental escalation is perhaps not the most likely outcome of their inevitable clashes....