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Israel-Hamas Conflict

Politics

Arab leaders began to arrive in Manama, Bahrain, on May 15, for the 33rd Arab League summit that will focus on developing a consensus on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, The National reported the next day.

MENA: Arab League Summit To Formalize Conditions for Gaza Reconstruction

United States

Military & Security

White House officials told Congress on May 14 that it would send some $1 billion in fresh arms and ammo to Israel, including $700 million in tank ammunition, $500 million in tactical vehicles and $60 million in mortar rounds, though it is unclear when the delivery will take place, AP reported on May 15.

U.S., Israel: Despite Rafah Threats, U.S. To Send $1B in Ammo and Aid to Israel

South Africa

Egypt stopped cooperating with Israel to facilitate humanitarian aid inflows to Gaza through the Rafah border crossing, Reuters reported on May 11, citing Egyptian state media.

Egypt: Cairo Stops Humanitarian Aid Cooperation With Israel, Backs South Africa's ICJ Case

Israel ordered the evacuation of more Palestinians from Gaza's southern city of Rafah as Israeli troops slowly moved around the city's outskirts, while others returned to northern Gaza to battle Hamas forces, AP reported on May 12.

Israel, Gaza: Without a Post-War Gaza Strategy, Fighting Spreads North and South

Israeli forces advanced around the eastern portion of Gaza's southern city of Rafah, with troops reportedly cutting off the area by taking control of the Salah al-Din road, Reuters reported on May 10.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Advances Into Eastern Rafah Amid International, Domestic Criticism

Israeli leaders pushed back against U.S. threats to cut off arms exports after U.S. President Joe Biden said he would cut off certain arms exports to Israel if the Israel Defense Forces began a major offensive in Gaza's southern city of Rafah that reached population centers, The Times of Israel reported on May 9.

U.S., Israel: Israeli Leaders Criticize Biden's Threat To Cut Off Arms Exports

The United States paused a shipment of around 3,000 heavy bombs to Israel over concern that Israel might use them in the country's offensive in Gaza's southern city of Rafah, ABC News reported on May 8, citing a Pentagon official.

U.S., Israel: U.S. Holds Up Arms Delivery Over Israel's Rafah Offensive

Israel rejected Hamas’ cease-fire proposal and authorized the start of the long-planned operation to invade Gaza's southern city of Rafah, with Israeli tanks reportedly moving into the city's outskirts, The Times of Israel reported on May 6.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Rejects Cease-Fire Proposal, Begins Rafah Offensive

Assessments

Kenya

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Taiwanese President-elect William Lai (C) on Jan. 13 in Taipei, Taiwan. Lai will officially begin his four-year presidency May 20.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Kenya's President Visits Washington, Lai Inaugurated in Taiwan

A picture taken on May 6, 2024, shows smoke billowing following a bombardment east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. 

If Hamas doesn't agree to a more favorable cease-fire deal, Israel will likely expand its push into Gaza's southernmost city at the risk of exacerbating domestic and international blowback.

With the Capture of a Border Crossing, Israel's Rafah Operation Has Begun

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Argentina

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China

France

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife, Begona Gomez, arrive Oct. 5, 2023, at the Carlos V Palace at the Alhambra in Granada, Spain. Sanchez is expected to make an announcement about his political future on April 29 following his surprise decision April 25 to suspend public appearances after a court in Madrid announced an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling and corruption.

The Weekly Rundown: South American Foreign Ministers Visit China, the Spanish Premier Announces His Political Future

Iran

The Jordanian flag. Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

U.S.-Iran Relations

Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan's Alignment With Israel Will Put It in Iran's Crosshairs

Iran's large missile and drone attack will prompt an Israeli retaliation that will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing future similar attacks on Israel, but in doing so, Israel risks expanding the conflict, further sinking the region into turmoil and possibly dragging in the United States.

How Israel Might Respond to the Iranian Attack

Brazil

Colombia

Germany

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

Snapshots

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani speaks during a press conference alongside U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 13, 2023. 

As Hamas loses control of Gaza, Qatar's political incentives for hosting the group's political leaders will decrease, which will likely see Doha align its Palestine policies with the other GCC members.

How Will the Gaza War Impact Qatar’s Foreign Policy and Its Ties to Hamas?

Portugal

Russia

Early voters line up March 3, 2024, in Lisbon, Portugal. Portuguese voters head to the polls March 10 in what opinion polls suggest will be a tight race between the incumbent Socialist Party and the Democratic Alliance coalition of center-right parties.

Cyber

The Weekly Rundown: Portugal's Election, Ramadan Begins With No Gaza Cease-fire

Ethiopia

Senegal

Displaced Palestinians camp near the fence separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt on Feb. 16, 2024, in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Egypt will continue to prepare a contingency plan in case Palestinians cross the Egypt-Gaza border amid growing signs that the Rafah offensive could start as early as this week.

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Egypt Plans for a Palestinian Influx, African Union Heads of State Meet

A picture taken from Rafah shows smoke billowing over Khan Yunis in the distance following an Israeli bombardment on the southern Gaza Strip on Feb. 14, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Israel's looming offensive in the southern Gazan city would end this phase of the war, but unless it also reaches a diplomatic breakthrough with Hamas, pro-Palestinian forces will keep attacking U.S. and Israeli interests in the region.

What To Watch for As Israel Advances Into Rafah

Indonesia

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with its Crew Dragon capsule launches from Launch Complex 39A during Axiom's third private mission at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Jan. 18, 2024.

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The Weekly Rundown: A Vote in Indonesia, U.S.-Iraq Military Negotiations and a U.S. Moon Mission

The Palestinian Territories comprise two sections of the former mandate of Palestine: the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The two small areas are separated from one another by Israel, which controls most of their frontiers. Jordan borders the West Bank on the east, while Egypt lies to the west of the Gaza Strip. The West Bank is a hilly, warm country that enjoys sufficient rainfall to support agriculture, but because the Gaza Strip receives little precipitation due to its location next to the dry Sinai Desert, its economy has traditionally relied on fishing and trade. The territories' only natural border is the Jordan River on the eastern edge of the West Bank.    The Palestinian Territories lack a clear demographic core, although the lands have a symbolic heart: the city of Jerusalem, which Palestinians view as their capital.    The Palestinian Territories evolved over time. After Israel gained its independence in 1948, Jordan annexed the West Bank while Egypt took control of Gaza. After the Six Day War in 1967, however, Israel occupied both territories. The occupation strengthened Palestinian identity, and members of the community eventually came to regard Gaza and the West Bank as components of a united proto-state.      But due to their size and domination by Israel, the Palestinian Territories have not succeeded in achieving state status. The territories, meanwhile, are not only divided geographically but also politically, as the Islamist party Hamas rules Gaza, while the more nationalist and secularist Fatah controls the West Bank. In addition to overcoming the lack of unity, the Palestinian Territories must convince Israel's allies to allow the entity to gain autonomy and eventually achieve independence. Ultimately, internal political divisions and the need to pursue diplomacy to become a sovereign state represent the core geographic challenges for the Palestinian Territories.  

Israel's Survival Strategy

The Pulse of Political Islam

SITUATION REPORTS

MENA: Arab League Summit To Formalize Conditions for Gaza Reconstruction

U.S., Israel: Despite Rafah Threats, U.S. To Send $1B in Ammo and Aid to Israel

Egypt: Cairo Stops Humanitarian Aid Cooperation With Israel, Backs South Africa's ICJ Case

Israel, Gaza: Without a Post-War Gaza Strategy, Fighting Spreads North and South

Israel, Gaza: Israel Advances Into Eastern Rafah Amid International, Domestic Criticism

U.S., Israel: Israeli Leaders Criticize Biden's Threat To Cut Off Arms Exports

U.S., Israel: U.S. Holds Up Arms Delivery Over Israel's Rafah Offensive

Israel, Gaza: Israel Rejects Cease-Fire Proposal, Begins Rafah Offensive

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