Media

Podcasts

Economics

Social Issues

What role should social listening play in the mitigation of social risk?

RANE Insights: Understanding the Public Perception of DEI

Assessments

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

Iran's large missile and drone attack will prompt an Israeli retaliation that will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing future similar attacks on Israel, but in doing so, Israel risks expanding the conflict, further sinking the region into turmoil and possibly dragging in the United States.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

How Israel Might Respond to the Iranian Attack

U.S.-Iran Relations

Brazil

Colombia

China

Germany

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

India's 2024 general election, which will be held from April 19 to June 1, will likely result in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party retaining control of the government.

2024 Elections: India

Europe

Glass-like molecules float against a green and purple background.

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

The European Union's gradual adoption of green hydrogen will bolster its energy security and create new global energy relations.

Europe's Green Hydrogen Future, Part 2: Charting the Path

What are Israel and Hezbollah's goals from their escalating tit-for-tat exchanges?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Israel and Hezbollah's Border Crisis

Niger

United States

What are Niger's security options going forward?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Niger's Security Landscape

Nigeria

Nigerian naira banknotes on Jan. 28, 2016, in Lagos, Nigeria.

Despite the government's commitment to fiscal prudence and macroeconomic and currency reforms, economic conditions in Nigeria will remain challenging in 2024 and 2025 amid modest economic growth and high inflation, keeping the risk of socioeconomic unrest and policy slippage elevated.

Despite Reforms and Prudence, Nigeria's Economy Will Still Challenge the Government

Snapshots

France

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 11, 2024

Belarus

Russia

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko gives a speech during his annual address to the Belarusian People and the National Assembly in Minsk on Jan. 28, 2022.

The upcoming All-Belarusian People's Assembly is poised to deepen Belarus' ties with Russia while also laying the groundwork for President Lukashenko's eventual succession process.

In Belarus, a Congress Will Lock in Integration With Russia -- and Lukashenko's Legacy

Latest

Bharatiya Janata Party flags on April 15 in the Indian city of Raipur. If India's ruling BJP party remains in power after the country's April 19-June 1 general election, policy continuity regarding efforts to increase employment, build infrastructure and implement controversial social policies nationally that trigger social unrest can be expected. 

If the ruling party in fact wins, policy continuity regarding employment, infrastructure and controversial social policies that trigger social unrest can be expected.

India's 2024 Elections Will Likely Generate Policy Continuity

Ethiopia

Somalia

A photo of the Somali flag.

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

Japan

South Korea

U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Greater U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict.

Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China

U.S.-China Relations

A billboard depicting Iranian ballistic missiles pictured April 15, 2024, in Valiasr Square in central Tehran. Iran's attack against Israel and Israel's possible retaliation will increase the likelihood that Tehran will accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.

Iran's attack against Israel and Israel's possible retaliation will increase the likelihood that Tehran will accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.

How Israel's Response to Iran Could Accelerate the Iranian Nuclear Program

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

Pakistan

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

United Kingdom

A rendering of Earth from space at night with abstract 5G connection zones. 

Cyber

In the United Kingdom and the United States, a focus on innovation will sideline robust artificial intelligence regulations.

The U.S. and U.K. Ramp Up Innovation-Focused AI Collaboration

Turkey

Opposition supporters celebrate Ekrem Imamoglu's reelection as Istanbul's mayor at the Republican People's Party Istanbul Provincial Directorate on April 1, 2024, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkey's government scrambles to recover from a weak performance in the country's municipal elections.

A Strong Performance From the Opposition in Turkey's Municipal Elections Bodes Ill for Erdogan

Haiti

A woman carrying a child runs from an area in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, after hearing gunshots on March 20, 2024.

The Caribbean nation's humanitarian and security crises are set to worsen in the weeks ahead, as gangs seize more territory and the U.N.-backed security deployment faces delays.

In Haiti, Weeks of Extreme Gang Violence Show No Sign of Easing

Ukraine

Afghanistan

Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following a shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, Russia, on March 22, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While the attack was likely conducted by Islamist extremists or North Caucasian groups, the Kremlin will nonetheless use the mass casualty incident to further villainize Ukraine and the West, and expand its war efforts against Kyiv.

What To Make of the Deadly Terrorist Attack in Moscow

10,000 yen notes on Sept. 24, 2022, in Tokyo.

A decision by the Bank of Japan to end negative interest rate and yield curve control policies is meant to reestablish greater monetary policy flexibility.

In a Boost for the Banking Sector, Japan Ends Negative Interest Rates

Columns

On Geopolitics

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

Vietnam

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Argentina

Chile

Costa Rica

Ecuador

Guatemala

Panama

Peru

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

Italy

Science & Technology

The British government is beginning to draft legislation to regulate artificial intelligence, or AI, the Financial Times reported on April 15. 

Italy, U.K.: Leaked Reports Highlight Governments' Concern Around AI Oversight 

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Christian Tshiwewe Songhesha, the Democratic Republic of the Congo's army chief of staff, announced the arrest of army and police officers in Lubumbashi, the capital of Haut Katanga province, for treason, Radio Okapi reported on April 15.

Congo: Army Chief of Staff Announces Arrest of Army and Police Officers

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka did not reach an agreement with its bondholders regarding the restructuring of approximately $12 billion in debt, Nikkei Asia reported on April 16. 

Sri Lanka: Government Fails To Reach Agreement With Bondholders on Debt Restructuring

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun spoke on the phone on April 16, marking the first major talk between U.S. and Chinese defense ministers since November 2022 and the first since Dong came to office in December 2023, the Financial Times reported on April 16.

China, U.S.: Defense Talks Help Avoid Minor Incidents, but Strategic Tensions Are Growing

Pro-Palestinian protesters associated with a group called A15 Action organized demonstrations in major cities worldwide, blocking major roads and demonstrating outside businesses, France 24 reported on April 15.

Global: Pro-Palestinian Protest Movement Targets Transportation and Businesses

China released its Nuclear Energy Development Blue Book 2024, which noted that China's operational capacity of nuclear energy in 2023 was 55 reactors with a total installed capacity of 57.03 gigawatts (ranked third in the world), state news outlet Global Times reported on April 15.

China: Nuclear Energy Expands Rapidly, but Faces Geopolitical Headwinds

Sudan

Donors pledged over $2.13 billion in humanitarian assistance for Sudan and agreed to strengthen the coordination of regional peace initiatives at an international conference in Paris, France, on the first anniversary of the country's civil war, Reuters reported on April 15. 

Sudan: Donors Raise Over $2B in Humanitarian Aid for First Anniversary of Civil War

Ghana

Ghana announced that it had halted talks to restructure $13 billion in dollar-denominated bonds with two bondholder groups, Reuters reported on April 15.

Ghana: Government Pauses Debt Restructuring Talks After IMF Warns Draft Deal Is Insufficient

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Burkina Faso

Mali

South Africa

Hong Kong SAR, China

Taiwan

Poland

Spain

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he asked Chinese President Xi Jinping to address issues such as overcapacity, dumping and copyright infringement and ensure fair competition for foreign companies operating in China during a meeting between the two leaders in Beijing, Reuters reported on April 16.

Germany, China: Scholz and Xi Meet in Beijing Amid Rising Trade Tensions

Venezuela

A U.S. State Department official said the United States would not renew a temporary license easing sanctions on Venezuela's hydrocarbon sector unless the government made progress on holding free and fair elections scheduled for July 28, Reuters reported on April 15.

U.S., Venezuela: Washington May Not Extend Sanctions Relief, but New License May Be Forthcoming

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

India's 2024 Elections Will Likely Generate Policy Continuity

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Italy, U.K.: Leaked Reports Highlight Governments' Concern Around AI Oversight

Congo: Army Chief of Staff Announces Arrest of Army and Police Officers

Sri Lanka: Government Fails To Reach Agreement With Bondholders on Debt Restructuring

China, U.S.: Defense Talks Help Avoid Minor Incidents, but Strategic Tensions Are Growing

Global: Pro-Palestinian Protest Movement Targets Transportation and Businesses

China: Nuclear Energy Expands Rapidly, but Faces Geopolitical Headwinds

Sudan: Donors Raise Over $2B in Humanitarian Aid for First Anniversary of Civil War

Ghana: Government Pauses Debt Restructuring Talks After IMF Warns Draft Deal Is Insufficient

Germany, China: Scholz and Xi Meet in Beijing Amid Rising Trade Tensions

U.S., Venezuela: Washington May Not Extend Sanctions Relief, but New License May Be Forthcoming

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support