Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 13, 2025

Media

Venezuela

Podcasts

Military & Security

Politics

Why are Venezuela's relationships with Russia, Iran and China so important to the United States?

Essential Geopolitics: The Primary Drivers and Constraints of U.S.-Venezuela Tensions

India

Pakistan

Firefighters douse a car at the suicide blast site in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

While unlikely to trigger immediate retaliation, recent explosions in both New Delhi and Islamabad will sustain the risk of renewed cross-border strikes should either country determine the other was culpable.

Back-to-Back Blasts in India and Pakistan Raise Fears of Another Escalation

Burundi

Kenya

Rwanda

Tanzania

Uganda

The Geopolitics of Trade

Economics

Global Trade

Kenya and Tanzania's infrastructure buildup will support East Africa's industrialization but will also depend on a range of other factors, including regional integration, shifts in the international trading system and technological changes.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 2

Chile

Chile's presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei (C) poses with her team after registering her candidacy at the Electoral Service of Chile in Santiago on Aug. 16, 2025.

Far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast is most likely to win, portending a shift toward pro-business policies and stricter security measures. But a leftist, center-right or ultra-right president could also be elected, each with different visions for Chile's future.

Chile's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

China

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Donald Trump (C), joined by lawmakers and members of his administration, delivers remarks during a dinner with leaders of Central Asian countries in the East Room of the White House on Nov. 6, 2025.

Energy

The recent C5+1 summit highlighted the U.S.'s desire to boost cooperation with Central Asian countries on trade and critical minerals, but the region's geography, governance and reliance on China and Russia will ultimately limit the impact of such efforts. 

The Promise and Limits of Increased U.S. Engagement in Central Asia

Brazil

Iraq

Syria

Campaign posters Nov. 6 ahead of Nov. 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections in central Baghdad.

Environment, Science & Technology

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iraqi Elections, a U.S.-China Deal Enters Effect

U.S.-China Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

South Sudan

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Malawi

Mozambique

Zambia

Japan

Europe

Over the next decade, Kenya and Tanzania will compete for the title of East Africa's leading trade gateway, particularly as global demand for Central Africa's critical minerals grows. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 1 

Bangladesh

Nepal

Sri Lanka

How do recent protests in Nepal compare to those in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka?

Essential Geopolitics: Political Instability in South Asia

Israel

Lebanon

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese village of Tayr Debba on Nov. 6, 2025. 

Despite Lebanon's diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions with Israel, stalled progress on Hezbollah's disarmament portends intensified Israeli airstrikes that would risk collapsing the Lebanese government and even triggering another war.

The Growing Risk of a New Hezbollah-Israel War

Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni addresses the Senate in Rome on Oct. 22, 2025. 

Despite Prime Minister Meloni's success in achieving rare political and financial stability, Italy's weak economic growth and the expiry of EU recovery funds in 2026 may compel her to abandon fiscal prudence ahead of the next election cycle.

Italy Struggles To Translate Political Stability Into Economic Growth

Latest

Cambodia

Thailand

Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (C) after chairing a National Security Council on Nov. 11 in Bangkok. An armed clash on the Thai-Cambodian border raises the risk of escalations that unwind the two countries' recent peace accord, though a return to full-scale war is less likely due to U.S. economic and security leverage.

While the most likely scenario is recurring but contained flare-ups through early 2026, a more escalatory scenario remains plausible.

More Clashes, but Not Full-blown Conflict, Likely on the Cambodian-Thai Frontier

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Nov. 12 at 10 Downing Street in central London. Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Painful Upcoming Budget Likely To Amplify Starmer's Leadership Woes

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Israel is expected to soon launch another offensive against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, which will risk reigniting the civil war and exposing Gulf countries and Red Sea shipping to retaliatory attacks.

What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security

Ukraine

A screen is seen during the International military anti drone exercise Baltic Trust 25 (BATT25) at the Selonia (Selija) military training ground near Viesite on Aug. 27, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The European Union is pushing to develop continent-wide anti-drone capabilities, but financial, political and legal fragmentation will significantly slow progress and leave the bloc's defense vulnerable.

Despite Political Enthusiasm, EU Drone Defenses Face Obstacles to Implementation

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Spain

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Turkey

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

South Korea

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

Canada

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Madagascar

Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025. 

President Andry Rajoelina's removal on the back of widespread, youth-led protests will likely deescalate tensions in Madagascar in the next few weeks, but it could inspire similar protest movements elsewhere in Africa and potentially beyond.

Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar

Columns

On Security

Nigeria

South Africa

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Morocco

Tunisia

Indonesia

Philippines

Serbia

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

On Geopolitics

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

Palestinian Territories

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Cyber

The funding bill signed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Nov. 12 ending the government shutdown included provisions to temporarily reauthorize the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act (CISA 2015) that previously expired on Sept. 30, Cybersecurity Dive reported on Nov. 13.

U.S.: Funding Bill To End Shutdown Temporarily Reauthorizes Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act

Taiwan

Taiwanese legislator and founder of the civil defense organization Kuma Academy, Puma Shen, spoke on Nov. 13 in Berlin at the Bundestag, Germany's parliament, to a hearing of the Committee on Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid about the threats to Western democracies from China's offline and online disinformation campaigns, Focus Taiwan reported. 


Taiwan: Taiwan's Third Europe Speaking Event Imperils EU-China Trade Talks, But Drills Unlikely

Afghanistan

Indian authorities formally characterized the Nov. 10 Delhi blast as a "terror incident," and local media indicated security agencies were probing possible connections between the blast and a recently busted terrorist cell allegedly tied to the Pakistan-linked Jaish-e-Mohammed militant group, Reuters reported on Nov. 13.

India, Pakistan: Governments Release More Information About Recent Explosions

Iraq's electoral commission announced that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's Reconstruction and Development Alliance garnered the most votes in the Nov. 11 parliamentary elections and is expected to have won around 45 of 329 seats in Iraq's unicameral Council of Representatives, Reuters reported on Nov. 12.

Iraq: Electoral Commission Releases Preliminary Parliamentary Election Results

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States has nearly exhausted major sanctions options against Russia after targeting its largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in October, Politico reported on Nov. 13. 

U.S., Russia, Ukraine: Rubio Says Sanctions Near Limit as Russian Forces Advance in Pokrovsk

Argentina

In October, Argentina's assets at the International Monetary Fund increased by $870 million, the same amount that the United States' holdings dropped and the value of a payment Buenos Aires faced on Nov. 1, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 13. 

Argentina, U.S.: Argentina's IMF Payment Underscores Stabilizing Role of U.S. Financial Support

Laos

Myanmar

The United States unveiled a new Scam Center Strike Force, a multi-agency task force to dismantle scam compounds in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos that defraud U.S. citizens and rely on forced labor, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 13.

U.S., Southeast Asia: Washington Launches Strike Force Targeting Regional Scam Centers

The European Union plans to present the United States with an implementation action plan for the next phase of the tariff agreement reached in August, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 13.

EU, U.S.: Brussels To Present Implementation Plan for Next Phase of U.S. Tariff Deal

Science & Technology

The European Parliament voted on Nov. 13 to scale back the European Union's sustainability reporting and due diligence framework, including major cuts to the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), a press release by the European Parliament shows.

EU: European Parliament Votes in Favor of Scaling Back Supply Chain Sustainability Regulations

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

More Clashes, but Not Full-blown Conflict, Likely on the Cambodian-Thai Frontier

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Funding Bill To End Shutdown Temporarily Reauthorizes Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act

Taiwan: Taiwan's Third Europe Speaking Event Imperils EU-China Trade Talks, But Drills Unlikely

India, Pakistan: Governments Release More Information About Recent Explosions

Iraq: Electoral Commission Releases Preliminary Parliamentary Election Results

U.S., Russia, Ukraine: Rubio Says Sanctions Near Limit as Russian Forces Advance in Pokrovsk

Argentina, U.S.: Argentina's IMF Payment Underscores Stabilizing Role of U.S. Financial Support

U.S., Southeast Asia: Washington Launches Strike Force Targeting Regional Scam Centers

EU, U.S.: Brussels To Present Implementation Plan for Next Phase of U.S. Tariff Deal

EU: European Parliament Votes in Favor of Scaling Back Supply Chain Sustainability Regulations

South Africa: Finance Minister Confirms Reduction of Inflation Target, Curbs on Spending in Budget Speech

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