ASSESSMENTS

Brazil Loses Its Appetite for Economic Reforms

Jun 7, 2018 | 04:00 GMT

A demonstrator holding a "Free Lula" sign shows his support for former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva during a May 30, 2018, protest in Sao Paulo. Da Silva was imprisoned in April on a corruption conviction.

A demonstrator holding a "Free Lula" sign shows his support for imprisoned former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva during a May 30, 2018, protest in Sao Paulo. The pace of economic reform in Brazil is set to slow amid social unrest and the run-up to elections in October.

(NELSON ALMEIDA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Protests and strikes against President Michel Temer's administration, which have exposed the political consequences of Temer's economic liberalization reforms, could continue if fuel prices remain high.
  • Right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who has been running on a "law and order" agenda, could benefit from the disorder caused by these protests and Temer's perceived inability to deal with them.
  • Social upheaval and the need to find a unity candidate ahead of the October general election will force Brazil's political establishment to slow the pace of economic and trade liberalization reforms in the next quarter.

Brazilian President Michel Temer was already deeply unpopular on the street, but now it seems even his congressional support for reforms is vanishing. Rising global oil prices and resultant fuel price increases have created social upheaval across Brazil in the last two weeks as strikes by truck drivers and oil workers have cornered the government ahead of general elections in October, exposing the discontent with the government's economic liberalization measures. With problems on the street and on the campaign trail, the pace of economic liberalization in Brazil might soon slow to a crawl as Temer's erstwhile backers in Congress spend more time considering the upcoming polls than fulfilling the president's agenda....

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