Colombia: Rebels Struggle to Uphold a Unilateral Cease-Fire

A negotiated settlement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, the rebel group better known as FARC, is certainly possible, and it is perhaps even likely that one will be reached before the government-imposed November 2013 deadline. However, violence and instability in Colombia will be difficult — if not impossible — to eradicate.

A unilateral cease-fire announced by the FARC on Nov. 19, 2012, is set to expire Jan. 20. The cease-fire, which was enacted during peace negotiations with the Colombian government, has been relatively effective and violent incidents have dwindled. However, a number of attacks have been carried out in recent weeks, suggesting a lack of adherence to the cease-fire and indicating that FARC leadership may not exercise complete control over the group. The attacks have occurred mostly in southwestern and western Colombia, regions that contain elements of the country's energy infrastructure and reserves and that have long been marked by poverty, drugs and rebel insurgency.

If the FARC's secretariat cuts a deal that is favorable to its leadership but does not satisfy its rank-and-file soldiers, the rebel group may fracture, leading offshoot entities to continue pursuing violent and illicit activities. The continuation of these activities will ultimately constrain further growth in Colombia's energy sector.