Two of Central Asia's poorest countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are attempting to leverage one of their few geographic advantages — control over the headwaters of two major regional rivers — to build new hydropower dams. The proposed dams offer the prospect of boosting electricity production, which could lessen the two countries' energy dependence on their richer downstream neighbors, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The projects could eventually even allow Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to export excess energy to China, Afghanistan and Pakistan if the necessary infrastructure is built, which would be extremely valuable for the two historically poor countries. However, the new dams could also reduce water flow to the downstream countries at a time when water resources in the region are already strained due to water diversion measures, inefficient infrastructure and general overuse. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are concerned that if the dams are built, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will hoard water in reservoirs during the summer months (when the downriver agricultural regions need it most) in order to release it during the winter to generate hydroelectric power. Financing for the hydropower dams has not yet been secured, but if the projects do proceed, tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and their downriver neighbors are likely to increase. Though military confrontations are unlikely in the near term, any developments that jeopardize the downriver countries' water supply could prompt a harsh response.
