The Effect on Egypt of Ukraine's Wheat Export Ban

Ukraine confirmed speculation Oct. 24 that it would ban wheat exports beginning Nov. 15, Reuters reported. Already the news has affected world wheat prices, and its impact could be felt in the longer term as high prices and a limited number of suppliers put pressure on import-dependent countries.

One such country is Egypt. The threat of increasing wheat prices and the limited number of exporters could increase tensions in Egypt. In turn, higher bread prices and possible social unrest will pressure the Muslim Brotherhood to quickly and completely establish the new government in Cairo. In the meantime, if social unrest escalates, the ruling party risks leaving the door open for its opponents, including the military, to step in.