ASSESSMENTS

Egypt's Limited Military Options to Stop an Ethiopian Dam Project

Jun 10, 2013 | 14:49 GMT

Egypt's Limited Military Options to Stop an Ethiopian Dam Project
The Blue Nile in Guba, Ethiopia, during its diversion ceremony on May 28.

(William Lloyd-George/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

Ethiopia's initiation of a dam project on the Blue Nile has quickly drawn the ire of Egypt, which is critically dependent on it as a source of much of the country's freshwater needs. As Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr said June 9 following Ethiopia's refusal to halt construction of the dam and ahead of his trip to Addis Ababa to discuss the project, Egypt will not give up a "single drop of water from the Nile." "No Nile, no Egypt," he said.

While Egypt has struggled to attract diplomatic intervention on its behalf to thwart Ethiopia's dam construction, tensions have reached the point where Egypt has suggested the use of force to keep the dam from potentially lowering the Nile's water levels downstream to unacceptable levels. There will be serious international pressure to keep the dispute over the dam in the realm of diplomacy, but there are also fairly significant constraints on the physical possibility of an Egyptian military solution.

Egypt would need Sudan's help if it wanted to have a real chance to destroy the Blue Nile dam project....

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