GUIDANCE

How a Journalist's Disappearance Could Affect U.S.-Saudi Ties

Oct 16, 2018 | 15:38 GMT

Turkish police enter the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 15 to conduct a search for journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who has been missing since he entered the premises on Oct. 2.

Turkish police enter the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 15 to conduct a search for journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who has been missing since he entered the premises on Oct. 2. Washington could take various courses of action against Riyadh over Khashoggi's disappearance.

(CHRIS McGRATH/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The Khashoggi affair is unlikely to cause a rupture between the United States and Saudi Arabia because of their deep and longstanding ties.
  • While the United States could follow any number of courses of action, it is Congress, not the president, that will likely lead the way.
  • Riyadh could retaliate against Washington in a variety of ways, but the United States will remain on the front foot in shaping the countries' relations following Khashoggi's disappearance.

Just how far will the U.S.-Saudi fallout over the disappearance of journalist and dissident Jamal Khashoggi go? There is a lot at stake: The United States needs Saudi Arabia to balance oil markets, combat Iran, fight terrorism and purchase arms. Saudi Arabia, in turn, needs American weapons and defense cooperation, access to U.S. technology and investment, and U.S. protection against a resurgent Tehran. It all means that the geopolitical ties that bind Riyadh and Washington are likely to remain tight. But with congressional rhetoric hot and media outrage at a fever pitch, American repercussions against the kingdom are likely in some form -- though the Saudis aren't devoid of their own courses of action either....

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