ASSESSMENTS

Kyiv's Push to End Eastern Ukraine's Conflict Risks Prolonging It

Mar 4, 2020 | 19:21 GMT

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks following an outbreak of violence with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine on Feb. 18, 2020. Ruslan Khomchak, the commander of Ukraine's armed forces, stands behind Zelenskiy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks following an outbreak of violence in eastern Ukraine on Feb. 18, 2020. Because of severe challenges in implementing the Minsk protocols, the Ukrainian government is planning to propose an alternative framework to end the ongoing conflict with Russian-backed separatists.

(GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The continued lack of progress toward achieving permanent peace in eastern Ukraine has prompted Kyiv to officially pursue a replacement to the Minsk protocols.
  • Ukraine, however, lacks the leverage to coerce Russia and the region's separatist republics into complying with its plans to negotiate an entirely new diplomatic roadmap.
  • Kyiv's strategy could instead leave the opposing parties in Donbas without any mutually agreed-upon framework, which would increase the possibility of military escalation in the region.

With no end in sight to the conflict in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv's desire to forge a new path to peace risks setting it back to square one. In late February, Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it was actively working on a proposal to replace the 2014 Minsk Protocol. But while the chances of permanently ending the conflict under the current Minsk agreements remain slim at best, the chances that Ukraine can successfully negotiate an entirely new framework with Russia-backed separatists in Donbas are even slimmer. Instead, Kyiv's strategy is most likely to collapse existing diplomatic efforts -- and could potentially even lead to an escalation in fighting along the region's still-active front lines -- by highlighting the very constraints that have prevented progress over the past six years....

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