The Limitations of Syria's Chemical Weapons

The Syrian regime's chemical warfare option, though capable of severely weakening rebel forces, will not solve the regime's problems. Syrian President Bashar al Assad's forces are depleted, beleaguered and in many instances isolated from the chemical weapons network. A serious logistical and command and control effort would be required for the mass deployment of chemical weapons — an effort that may already be beyond the regime's current capabilities.

Syria is believed to have a large chemical weapons program, and there is a growing international concern that the regime may use these weapons against the rebels. On Dec. 5, U.S. officials said the Syrian military has loaded the precursor chemicals for deadly sarin nerve gas into aerial munitions. But these munitions have yet to be loaded onto Syrian military aircraft, and it is believed that the order to utilize these weapons has not been issued.

However, the regime's use of these weapons would be extremely susceptible to discovery and exposure by ongoing international intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Thus it nearly guarantees a foreign intervention in which the United States would play a key role despite its hesitancy to become deeply involved in the Syrian conflict. Aware of the United States' position, the al Assad regime's preparation of sarin precursors could be an attempt to gain leverage in negotiations over amnesty for the top leadership, as well as an attempt to deter increased support for the rebels. The United States could also hope to draw any remaining support away from the Syrian regime by portraying al Assad as desperate enough to resort to chemical weapons.