ASSESSMENTS

The Long-Term Implications of France's 'Yellow Vest' Protests

Dec 10, 2018 | 15:40 GMT

Protesters face riot police on Dec. 7, 2018, in Toulouse, France.

Protesters face riot police on Dec. 7, 2018, in Toulouse, France. Since mid-November, a series of protests against France's high cost of living and President Emmanuel Macron's economic reforms have taken place throughout the country.

(REMY GABALDA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The French government's comfortable majority in the National Assembly makes it possible for President Emmanuel Macron to implement his pro-business reforms agenda, but resistance from volatile grassroot movements, right- and left-wing political opponents and labor unions will constrain the government's room for action.
  • A plan to reform the pensions system in 2019 will open the door to new street protests, while a plan to amend the French Constitution will give opposition parties the chance to weaken the government.
  • Resistance from Northern European countries and institutional turnover in 2019 will make it hard for France to achieve its plans of deeper risk-sharing and greater money transfers within the European Union.

Since mid-November, tens of thousands of protesters in France have rallied against the government in a cause that has become known as the "yellow vest" movement, a reference to the safety vests that French drivers keep in their cars. While large political protests are nothing new in France, the intensity of the yellow vest protests has not only led to some of the worst rioting in Paris in decades and forced authorities to shut down parts of the city, but also forced President Emmanuel Macron to back down on a policy decision for the first time in his 18-month presidency. The French government announced on Dec. 5 that it would scrap the controversial fuel tax increase that prompted the yellow vest protests in the first place. The protests come at a time when Macron's popularity has fallen to record lows. The situation is threatening to weaken Macron's authority at home...

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