ASSESSMENTS

Mali Prepares for an Election With a Sense of Foreboding

Jul 27, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

 Supporters of Malian presidential candidate Soumaila Cisse hold posters as they attend a campaign rally in Bamako on July 8, 2018.

Supporters of Malian presidential candidate Soumaila Cisse hold posters as they attend a campaign rally in Bamako on July 8, 2018. The crowded presidential field -- with two dozen contenders -- likely will work in his favor.

(MICHELE CATTANI/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Mali's July 29 presidential election will provide a tempting target for militants and may even spark political instability if election results appear suspect.
  • Despite years of rebuilding since the 2012 coup d'etat and the 2013 French-led military intervention to restore order, Mali's central government remains a fragile and distracted partner for its regional counterterrorism partners.
  • France is determined to reduce its heavy security burden in the Sahel in the years ahead, but persistent militant attacks and the weaknesses of the region's countries will frustrate Paris' plans.

More than five years after French-led forces intervened to prevent Islamic militants from taking over Mali's government, voters in the country will go to the polls on July 29 to choose a president. Two dozen candidates are vying for the top office, including incumbent President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, who is seeking a second five-year term. Widely known as IBK, Keita is considered one of the favorites to make it to a second round of voting even though he has been bleeding political support from multiple sectors of society. Mali is hoping to consolidate the democratic gains it has made since a military coup in 2012 and subsequent Islamic militant and separatist insurgencies disrupted its course. But next week's presidential election will be held in an extremely poor security environment and run by a fragile central government whose ability to protect voters and guarantee the election's integrity is in doubt....

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