GUIDANCE

A Military Crackdown in Tajikistan Could Draw in Bigger Powers

Sep 26, 2018 | 18:02 GMT

Lake Sarez sits at an elevation of 3,300 meters (10,827 feet) in Tajikistan's Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region.

Lake Sarez sits at an elevation of 3,300 meters (10,827 feet) in Tajikistan's Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. The country reportedly is considering a military crackdown in the area that could ultimately draw in Russia and China.

(KADAM MASKAYEV/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Tajikistan's security forces could soon launch a military operation in the eastern Gorno-Badakhshan region, raising the possibility of a wider conflict.
  • The region's proximity to the Tajik-Afghan border could draw in Russia and China, both of which share a strategic interest in containing militancy in the area.
  • Military movements by Tajikistan and Russia, as well as potential militant attacks against government and security forces, will determine whether the conflict escalates.

Twenty years after a destructive civil war, Tajikistan is potentially facing renewed conflict. The country's military is reportedly deploying troops to the eastern city of Khorugh in preparation for a special operation there, according to opposition sources in Tajikistan. During a meeting with local officials in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region -- the capital of which is Khorugh -- on Sept. 15, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon criticized local leaders for their failure to crack down on criminal and drug-trafficking groups in the region, giving them a one-month deadline to "establish order." If the rumblings of a military operation are true, the ensuing conflict could very well draw in Tajikistan's bigger neighbors, Russia and China....

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