In a country known for ethnic conflict, Myanmar's ethnic Rohingya stand out. The Muslim minority group, concentrated near the Bangladeshi border in Rakhine state, has a long history of marginalization. Its members lack full citizenship in Myanmar, and the leaders of many other minority populations in the country deny that the Rohingya are a distinct ethnic group at all. Even the name "Rohingya" is controversial.
Moreover, Rakhine state is an integral part of Myanmar and one with a great deal of economic importance. Though remote from Myanmar's core, Rakhine state has a dense population and access to a major portion of the country's offshore natural gas fields, a key source of government revenue. In addition, the state is the site of various joint projects with China, including a natural gas pipeline that runs into Yunnan province and a deep-sea port and special economic zone planned for Kyaukpyu on Rakhine's coast. Consequently, any new Rohingya insurgent group could upset Rakhine's political and communal balance, posing a threat to its infrastructure and development.
Still, a substantial number of Rohingya have fled the country and live across the border in Bangladesh or in diaspora communities around the world. The ethnic group has even become something of a cause celebre for leaders in the West and in the Muslim world, who have called on Myanmar's government to redress the plight of the Rohingya. Similarly, international jihadists have rallied behind the cause, sparking fear among Southeast Asia's leaders that extremist groups such as the Islamic State could co-opt and radicalize the Rohingya. Evidence of radicalization has yet to materialize, but the situation has become more complicated in recent months with the emergence of a new Rohingya insurgent movement.
Many of Myanmar's minority groups were marginalized under the country's nearly 50-year military dictatorship and formed their own insurgent armies. Since the junta fell in 2010, these ethnic militant groups have struggled to trade their military power for political power. But the Rohingya, lacking official recognition as an ethnic group and under heavy government pressure, have not managed to sustain a substantial militant movement of their own. Even so, they have made sporadic attempts. Now, a new group seems to be emerging, the militant faction, Harakah al-Yaqin, or Faith Movement. Given the Rohingya's precarious position in Myanmar and the heightened concerns over terrorism in the region, Harakah al-Yaqin is trying to maintain domestic credibility by deliberately avoiding language or propaganda that could be construed as remotely jihadist or Islamist, instead maintaining a strict focus on ethnic rights. For now, the new Rohingya militant group is in its early days, and it is unclear how its insurgency will unfold.
