ASSESSMENTS

Nationalist Violence in Ireland

Oct 27, 2010 | 12:18 GMT

STRATFOR

Summary

The latest incarnation of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which dominated the headlines 30 years ago as a radical militant movement, is starting to stir once again. The United Kingdom recently compared the threat posed by an IRA splinter group to that posed by weapons of mass destruction. While the level of militant violence has increased in Northern Ireland in recent years, the current nationalist movement lacks a strategic foreign benefactor and, at least for now, the will to inflict civilian casualties or incite sectarian unrest.

While conditions exist for a renewed threat from Irish republican militants, a return to The Troubles of the 1970s and 1980s is unlikely. (With STRATFOR graphics) ...

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