A Rebel Offensive in South Sudan Jeopardizes Peace Talks

Skirmishes between South Sudanese government and rebel forces have continued despite a January cease-fire, but a renewed offensive by the rebels to recapture Malakal, the capital of Upper Nile state, marks a return to more intense military confrontation. Malakal is located in southwest Upper Nile, which is the country's most significant oil-producing state. The fighting will complicate a peace process that had already stalled. The government may refuse to cooperate with rebel leader Riek Machar, the country's former vice president, if he ordered the assault to improve his side's bargaining position. At the same time, if Machar did not order the offensive, Juba would no longer view him as a valid representative of the rebels.

The offensive is unlikely to directly affect oil production in Upper Nile state. However, it could increase regional support for military action against the rebels. At the very least, South Sudan's military will need to consolidate its forces in the area to maintain control of Malakal and regain the advantage.