GRAPHICS

Russia Loses Its Grip on Eastern Europe

Oct 16, 2015 | 18:48 GMT

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(Stratfor)

Energy security has long been a controversial issue for Poland and its Baltic neighbors — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — for two reasons, both of which have to do with Russia. First, Russia has historically held a monopoly on supplying natural gas to Poland and the Baltic states. Second, Russia has often used its monopoly for political gain, whether by enacting discriminatory pricing schemes against individual states or by intentionally disrupting supply flows for political reasons. Because Poland and the Baltic states have integrated into the European Union and NATO and are leading anti-Russia voices within both blocs, they are particularly vulnerable to Russia's use of energy as a political tool.

However, the Kremlin may lose influence in Eastern Europe as the region diversifies its energy resources. At an EU summit Oct. 15, Poland and the Baltic states will sign an agreement to build a natural gas pipeline that will play a key role in integrating their energy networks. The deal comes within a week of the inauguration of a Polish liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal in the port city of Swinoujscie and less than year after the opening of a Lithuanian LNG terminal in Klaipeda.

Diversifying energy sources away from Russia has become a crucial component of regional national security strategies. Both Poland and Lithuania have already launched LNG import terminal projects in pursuit of this goal. And unlike similar plans made by other states in Central and Eastern Europe, which have largely stalled, construction companies broke ground on the Polish and Lithuanian projects in 2012. By October 2014, Lithuania had inaugurated its floating import terminal in Klaipeda, which began receiving commercial deliveries of LNG from Norway's Statoil in early 2015. While Poland's Swinoujscie LNG terminal was initially subject to several delays, it was formally inaugurated Oct. 12 and is set to receive its first shipment of LNG from Qatar in December. And as such energy projects move forward, Poland and the Baltic states will continue to gain leverage in their dealings with Russia.