Significant Islamic State Offensive into Lebanon Unlikely

Four years into the Syrian civil war, fighting continues between forces loyal to the government of Bashar al Assad and a number of rebel groups, including the Islamic State. Although strong in Syria's northeast, these groups are under pressure in the Qalamoun region of Syria, which surrounds the government stronghold of Damascus. Qalamoun also shares a mountainous border with Lebanon; an asset for rebels. Lebanon has a substantial Sunni minority and Sunni Islamic State militants hope to spread the conflict into Lebanon as they have done in Iraq. For some time, the Lebanese press has regularly predicted an impending Islamic State offensive into Lebanon. Expanding into Lebanon would alleviate rebel supply difficulties and also allow them to directly confront Hezbollah — a key supporter of Damascus.

But the rebels in Qalamoun are few and weak. They continue to wage guerrilla war and carry out cross-border raids, but an offensive into Lebanon would be all but impossible under current conditions. Instead, the Syrian threat to the Lebanese government comes from internal Sunni unrest. Lebanon's restive Sunni community has recently experienced communal clashes in Tripoli. The influx of a large number of Sunni Syrian refugees has also compounded this unrest. Though a Lebanese Sunni uprising is not imminent, the threat of further unrest will be a prominent security focus for Hezbollah entering 2015.