ASSESSMENTS

Southern Yemen Inches Toward Independence. But at What Cost?

Nov 5, 2019 | 17:19 GMT

Armed men gather to protest against the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen.

Armed Yemenis gather on Sept. 17, 2019 in the country’s nominative capital of Sanaa, which remains under Houthi control, to show their support of the rebel cause.

(MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The most recent battle for Aden will give the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) more political influence to pursue its goal of southern independence.
  • This will continue to fuel conflict with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, straining Riyadh and Abu Dhabi's alliance in Yemen in the process (even as their partnership in other theaters remains intact). 
  • The fighting will also grant Houthis and jihadist groups a chance to make limited gains elsewhere in the country, as the Saudi-led coalition focuses on keeping the STC from gaining more ground in the south.  
  • Such security risks may ultimately prompt the two sides to shelve their current battle, though the southern separatists will still likely use their gains to demand greater autonomy in Yemen's future. 

Since 2015, the southern Yemeni city of Aden has been the site of several major clashes between the U.N.-recognized government of President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi and the Southern Transitional Council (STC). But the latest bout of fighting between the nominal anti-Houthi partners has, for the first time, left the port city largely under STC control -- demonstrating the separatist group's ability to take, and retain, ground from the Yemeni government.  Bolstered by years of military, economic and political support from the United Arab Emirates, the STC now has the opportunity to build up shadow institutions and governing capabilities in Aden that will bring the group closer to achieving its ultimate goal of an independent South Yemen. But doing so will mean drawing resources from the Saudi-led coalition's broader fights against Houthi rebels and jihadist groups -- and potentially inviting backlash from other southerners seeking to stake their own claim in...

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