In Spain, Catalan Independence Comes at a Cost

The autonomous Spanish region of Catalonia will hold regional elections on Sept. 27, a vote that the Catalan government has said will be the prelude to a declaration of independence. Stratfor does not expect Catalonia to declare independence this year, even if pro-independence forces win the elections. Should a pro-secession government form, it would try to negotiate with Madrid before making any unilateral moves. However, Madrid is unlikely to agree to negotiate with the next Catalan government, at least not until Spain holds general elections in December. As a result, the relationship between the Spanish central government and Catalonia will remain tense, leading to a prolonged period of political uncertainty.