ASSESSMENTS

In Turkey, Election Results Will Not Surprise

Nov 1, 2015 | 13:02 GMT

In Turkey, Election Results Will Not Surprise
A woman looks out a tram window that is reflecting a banner of Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Oct. 30 in Istanbul.

(DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

The results of Turkey's Nov. 1 election will surprise no one. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains a highly polarizing figure, Kurdish voters have been alienated from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), the economy is stagnant, and many Turkish voters blame the AKP's foreign policy for making Turkey more vulnerable to both Kurdish militants and the Islamic State. The AKP will fall short of a parliamentary majority and Erdogan will once again be denied the privilege of one-party rule.

Even as political limbo persists in Ankara, the confluence of threats developing on Turkey's southern border with Syria will drive Turkish foreign policy more than any personality will....

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