ASSESSMENTS

Turkey's Economic Woes Dog the Government Ahead of Polls

Feb 18, 2019 | 10:00 GMT

People line up to buy subsidized vegetables at a tent set up by the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality in the Cankaya district of the Turkish capital on Feb. 13. Turkey's economy, as well as its Kurdish issue, are likely to be hot topics ahead of municipal elections on March 31.

(ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is well-positioned to win the highest number of votes in local elections on March 31.
However, the opposition could temper the AKP's victory if it can capitalize on voters' economic anxieties to pick up key AKP-held municipalities like Istanbul.
The AKP is likely to continue its campaign of intimidation against the main pro-Kurdish party in line with its desire for a military solution to the ongoing Kurdish issue.
If support for the AKP dips in the election, the party could pursue a harder line against its perceived enemies.

Pocketbooks and the Kurds are likely to be foremost on most voters' minds when Turkey heads to municipal polls on March 31 for an election that will provide a barometer of the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) support. In 2014, the last time voters elected mayors in Turkey, the AKP captured over 40 percent of the vote, finishing well ahead of the various opposition parties. Five years on, the opposition is jostling for more representation at the local level, and the political stakes are higher than ever as the parties battle over the country's plummeting economy and the government's security-first approach to the Kurdish issue. Profoundly popular with about half the population -- if detested just as much by the other half, albeit for wildly differing reasons -- AKP leader and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan today sits atop a powerful state apparatus. While the March 31 elections won't challenge...

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