ASSESSMENTS

What Does the End of the INF Treaty Mean for Europe?

Feb 25, 2019 | 10:00 GMT

Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev speaks in front of U.S. President Ronald Reagan during a welcoming ceremony at the White House on the first day of a disarmament summit on Dec. 8, 1987. Proliferation appears likely now that the United States has torn up the INF Treaty.

(JEROME DELAY/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Though the INF Treaty has collapsed, the stipulations of another arms treaty, New START, are likely to prevent Russia from altering its nuclear posture toward Europe much in the near future.
However, the continued erosion of arms control treaties, especially New START, could result in nuclear proliferation in Europe.
Countries in Western Europe are likely to balk at the increased deployment of nuclear-armed U.S. missiles in their countries, but NATO members in Eastern Europe could be more amenable due to their greater fears of the Russian threat.

The Cold War ended in Europe almost three decades ago, but many on the Continent are none too happy about the end to one of the last vestiges of that battle, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union (and, subsequently, its Russian successor) imposed limits on the destructive nuclear strength that Moscow could train on Europe's NATO members, as well as the force with which the West could threaten Russia. But now that the United States has suspended the treaty, proliferation -- as well as more instability in Europe -- might be on the cards again....

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