ASSESSMENTS

Why the Islamic State Is Weaker Than It Seems

Jun 13, 2016 | 09:45 GMT

Syrian loyalist troops march through Palmyra after retaking the city. The Islamic State's losses will only mount in Syria as it faces foes on multiple fronts.

(LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/Getty Images)

Forecast Highlights

In Syria, the Islamic State will continue to lose cities and vital territory.
The group will react to its losses by relying more heavily on insurgent and terrorist tactics, ensuring that it remains a serious threat.
The continued disenfranchisement of Sunnis in Syria will enable the Islamic State, and groups like it, to maintain a foothold in the country.

In Syria, the Islamic State is in crisis. Over the past three years, the group has managed to expand from a regional nuisance to a force with global relevance, declaring a caliphate in June 2014 that stretched from Iraq's Diyala province to Syria's Aleppo province. By doing so, it linked the two nations into a single zone of conflict and drew the attention of numerous powers, including the United States, Turkey and Russia. Today, the group maintains a presence from western Iraq to the Syria-Lebanon border -- an impressive territorial spread. But the breadth of the Islamic State's holdings in Syria is deceptive. The group's actual reach is largely limited to small, dispersed enclaves. The unbroken expanses of territory under its control are mostly empty desert. And a look at the group's three core Syrian areas -- northern Aleppo province, Raqqa and Deir el-Zour -- shows how the Islamic State is...

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