Quarterly Forecasts Mar 26, 2020 | 18:27 GMTMar 26, 2020
Many of the trends identified in our annual forecast will slow down or be on hold as governments scramble to adapt to a post-COVID reality.
Forecasts
Quarterly Forecasts
Quarterly Forecasts Sep 22, 2019 | 22:59 GMTSep 22, 2019
The quarter will be defined by the threat of a conflict with Iran that disrupts oil supplies while the global economy nervously anticipates the next turn in the U.S.-China trade war and the possibility of an ugly U.K.-EU divorce.
Quarterly Forecasts Jun 17, 2019 | 14:35 GMTJun 17, 2019
The United States will remain at the center of world events this quarter as its strategic competition with China escalates, relations with Iran deteriorate and the threat of tariffs or sanctions loom over all.
Quarterly Forecasts Mar 10, 2019 | 21:59 GMTMar 10, 2019
Stratfor's 2019 Second-Quarter Forecast explores what the coming months ahead will bring, focused on international affairs and global risk through the prism of geopolitics.
Quarterly Forecasts Sep 9, 2018 | 18:03 GMTSep 9, 2018
With an eye on every corner of the world, our global forecast for the final quarter of 2018 shows little respite for careworn countries, trade agreements under strain, trouble ahead in emerging markets, little progress in resolving conflicts and broad shifts in alliances.
Quarterly Forecasts Jun 10, 2018 | 23:18 GMTJun 10, 2018
It promises to be an especially fractious quarter as the United States continues to spar not only with adversaries but allies as well. The simmering trade dispute with China will continue, Russia will struggle to break its stalemate with the West, Europe has a litany of problems to address, and anything could happen on the Korean Peninsula.
Quarterly Forecasts Mar 11, 2018 | 22:11 GMTMar 11, 2018
All eyes will be fixed on the White House this quarter as it launches a trade offensive whose collateral damage will span the globe. As economic and political pressure mounts against China, North Korea will use a temporary detente with the South to undermine the United States' containment strategy against it.
Quarterly Forecasts Oct 2, 2017 | 07:58 GMTOct 2, 2017
An emerging nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula will rise to the top of the United States' agenda this quarter, reducing the priority of less pressing issues as Washington works furiously to avoid -- and prepare for -- the worst. As the White House's gaze remains fixed on Pyongyang's arsenal, Europe, Japan and China will turn their attention inward to wrestle with important questions about their political futures.
Annual Forecasts
Annual Forecasts Jan 6, 2020 | 00:01 GMTJan 6, 2020
Annual Forecasts Dec 16, 2019 | 10:00 GMTDec 16, 2019
Governments deciding how to approach global trade and economic uncertainty will home in on the U.S. presidential election in 2020 as they try to gauge Washington's future course.
Annual Forecasts Dec 3, 2018 | 01:09 GMTDec 3, 2018
Great power competition is only set to intensify in 2019 and Stratfor's Annual Forecast outlines the critical issues for the coming year.
Annual Forecasts Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMTDec 26, 2017
North Korea's likely achievement of a viable nuclear deterrent next year will give rise to a new and more unstable era of containment. As the specter of war looms in the Asia-Pacific, China and Russia will band together while the United States cracks down even harder on Iran -- as well as its own trade partners.
Annual Forecasts Dec 27, 2016 | 13:44 GMTDec 27, 2016
Long-arching trends tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily surface as the politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the stronger the political response. That loud banging at the door is the force of nationalism greeting the world's powers, particularly Europe and the United States, still the only superpower.
Annual Forecasts Dec 28, 2015 | 12:56 GMTDec 28, 2015
2016 is shaping up to be an unsettling year for much of the world. The United States and Russia are still locked in an intractable standoff. Nationalism is resurfacing in Europe. The price of oil and other commodities are low. Chinese consumption is falling. And countries around the world are more resolved than ever before to intensify their military campaigns against the Islamic State.
Annual Forecasts Jan 12, 2015 | 10:30 GMTJan 12, 2015
As we look at what 2015 holds in store, we know the oil markets are oversupplied, Europe and China will continue to stagnate, and Russia will work under heavy constraints to deny the West a strong foothold in crucial areas of its periphery while the rest of the world deals with the repercussions of these trends. The ebb and flow of this tumult is covered in the forecast that follows.
Annual Forecasts Jan 6, 2014 | 10:01 GMTJan 6, 2014
After spending more than a decade absorbed in intractable conflicts across the Islamic world, the United States will finally start to catch its breath in 2014. As U.S. troops draw down their presence in Afghanistan, Washington will go to great lengths to develop an understanding with Tehran. Negotiations will face major hurdles, and a final settlement that lifts the economic embargo on Iran will be a bridge too far for 2014. However, our longtime readers probably will not be surprised by the underlying depth and sincerity shared by Tehran and Washington that will sustain this detente over the course of the year.
Decade Forecasts
Decade Forecasts Feb 12, 2020 | 02:59 GMTFeb 12, 2020
Over the next 10 years, the world will revert to a multipolar power structure that will encourage constantly shifting alliances and create a more contentious global system. In the midst of this dynamic change, pockets of economic opportunity will emerge.
Decade Forecasts Feb 23, 2015 | 02:13 GMTFeb 23, 2015
The United States will continue to be the major economic, political and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past. Its low rate of exports, its increasing energy self-reliance and its experiences over the last decade will cause it to be increasingly cautious about economic and military involvement in the world.
Decade Forecasts Jan 21, 2010 | 14:27 GMTJan 21, 2010
We continue to maintain the essential forecasts made in 2005.
Decade Forecasts Feb 7, 2005 | 23:59 GMTFeb 7, 2005
The world will remain what it always has been: a dangerous place in which nation-states, and occasional non-nation-state actors, continue to struggle, compete and make war. What follows is our estimate of who the main actors will be, where the struggles will be, what sort of competition will take place and where wars might occur.
Decade Forecasts Jan 1, 2000 | 06:00 GMTJan 1, 2000
The fundamental question of the next decade – for both individual countries and the international system as a whole – will revolve around the United States. The question, increasingly, will be this: How can other countries limit American power and control American behavior?
Decade Forecasts Jan 1, 1995 | 06:00 GMTJan 1, 1995
The decade ending 2005 will be marked by two contradictory trends. On one hand it will be a period of unprecedented global economic prosperity and growth. On the other hand, it will become a period of increasing fragmentation and tension in the international system. As in the period prior to World War I, prosperity and instability will go hand in hand.
