Stratfor, the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform, identifies the critical geopolitical trends that will shape the actions of nations and industries in the months ahead. Essential calls include why temporary truces won't end the trade war between the United States and China; how the global economy will be affected by regional developments; and how a strategic refocusing of U.S. military power will shape the global security environment in the second quarter of 2019.
"The U.S. is the key dynamic actor on the world stage this quarter," said Matthew Bey, a Senior Global Analyst at Stratfor. "China and the United States will ratchet up their competition in the second quarter, as Washington takes concrete steps to counter Beijing's emergence as an economic, military and political peer."
Stratfor's 2019 Second-Quarter Forecast is designed to help companies, governments and globally engaged individuals stay focused on strategic plans. Building on Stratfor's 2019 Annual Forecast, the indispensable 2019 Second-Quarter Forecast separates the signal from the noise and identifies geopolitical risks and opportunities.
Other insights from Stratfor's 2019 Second-Quarter Forecast:
- The United States will use auto tariffs as leverage in trade talks with Europe, but won't gain meaningful concessions, despite an economic slowdown in the eurozone.
- Iran will question the benefits of remaining within the JCPOA framework — otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal — but won't restart its nuclear program this quarter.
- A diminished U.S. presence in Syria increases the possibility of a tactical misstep that could provoke a state-to-state conflict involving the remaining powers. Russia will weather Western sanctions and take every opportunity to hit back, through cyber activity, political subversion and military activity along the European periphery.
- The U.S. will exert pressure on Venezuela but will stop short of military intervention.
The complete 2019 Second-Quarter Forecast is now available at worldview.stratfor.com.
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