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AssessmentsApr 3, 2020 | 16:36 GMT
A local business in Detroit, Michigan, closes shop following the state’s three-week “Stay Home, Stay Safe” order to slow the spread of COVID-19. As of April 2, Michigan had 10,791 confirmed cases of the virus, including 417 deaths.
The U.S.’s Piecemeal COVID-19 Response Portends a Long Recovery
As the COVID-19 crisis grips the United States, states and cities are leading the charge in the most significant containment measures, with the federal government playing a supporting role. This means that neither lockdown measures to contain the virus, nor the outbreak itself, will end on the federal government’s schedule.
Quarterly ForecastsMar 26, 2020 | 18:27 GMT
2020 Second-Quarter Forecast
Many of the trends identified in our annual forecast will slow down or be on hold as governments scramble to adapt to a post-COVID reality.
SnapshotsMar 3, 2020 | 16:53 GMT
Bolsonaro's Support for Anti-Congress Rallies Stirs Fears for Brazil's Democracy
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's support for a movement to stage demonstrations against the country's Congress on March 15 has led to accusations that he is acting to undermine democracy. The move has the potential to backfire politically as it has been opposed by some conservative elected officials and media figures.
SnapshotsFeb 14, 2020 | 20:24 GMT
Belarus Threatens to Siphon Russia's Europe-Bound Oil
Belarus' recent threats to both siphon oil from the transit pipelines, as well as fine Russia for a delayed nuclear plant construction, form a notable escalation in Minsk’s stance toward Russia in the two countries' ongoing standoff over oil deliveries. But the risk that escalated tensions would result in an
SnapshotsFeb 3, 2020 | 18:23 GMT
The EU's Regional Blocs Butt Heads on the Budget
The European Union's multiyear budget sets spending priorities and limits in the Continental bloc for seven-year periods. It pays for multiple EU initiatives, including aid to farmers and investments in infrastructure. But without the now-departed United Kingdom's contributions, spending cuts could endanger several EU programs, while reductions in transfers to
Regions & CountriesJanuary 28, 2020 | 19:28 GMT
Central African Republic
Central African Republic
The Central African Republic is a landlocked country in the heart of Central Africa. The country shares borders with Chad to the north, Sudan to the northeast, South Sudan to the east, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of the Congo to the south and Cameroon to the west. The Central African Republic's prospects for economic growth are severely limited by its geographical location, which has increased the costs of imports and exports while hampering connectivity. Unsurprisingly, the country is one of the world's least stable nations. Moreover, the government in Bangui, the country’s capital, remains woefully unable to assert its power beyond its immediate environs. In fact, large swaths of the country remain effectively outside the government’s control, as militant groups and gangs have proliferated in many areas. The assistance of outside powers and international organizations have done little to enhance Bangui’s authority in recent years. A former French colony, the Central African Republic has struggled to achieve stability since independence. Instead, periodic conflagrations have rocked the country, occasionally precipitating French military intervention, such as in 2013. An additional challenge for leaders in Bangui is the near continuous meddling of their regional neighbors, which have sought to exploit the Central African Republic's security vacuum to grab some of the country's vast mineral resources. At present, the country’s long-term prospects appear bleak due to its deep structural deficiencies.
On SecurityJan 28, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
U.S. Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth McKenzie speaks as a picture of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is seen during a press briefing Oct. 30, 2019, at the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia.
The Global Jihadist Movement in 2020: The Threat Lens Forecast
As 2020 begins, the world is firmly in the post-Islamic State "caliphate" phase of the jihadist struggle. In 2019, the Islamic State lost the last sliver of the vast territory it had seized during its rapid rise in 2014. The group also lost its "caliph," Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in a
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