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AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsApr 17, 2024 | 17:00 GMT
A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.
Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime
While an impending leadership change in Singapore portends short-term policy continuity, it could lead to a snap election and may signal that the ruling party's monopolistic political leadership is gradually waning. On April 15, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that he would step down in favor of his chosen successor, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, who will become the country's fourth prime minister since 1965. The transition is set for May 15. After the transfer of authority, Wong will lead the ruling People's Action Party, or PAP, in preparation for the city-state's next general election, which is due by November 2025. Lee will serve as a senior minister in Wong's Cabinet following the handover.
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Singapore
Economics
Politics
SnapshotsApr 11, 2024 | 18:18 GMT
France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.
France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections
In France, bringing public finances back on a sustainable path following years of spending increases would require the government to adopt politically painful measures that may ultimately lead to a government collapse and early elections. On April 10, the French government unveiled new annual budgetary objectives through 2027 in response to a rapid deterioration of the country's public finances, raising its deficit target for 2024 to 5.1% of gross domestic product from the originally planned 4.4%. Meanwhile, the government maintained its goal of bringing the deficit below 3% in 2027. Achieving this target will require additional spending cuts worth 10 billion euros ($10.85 billion) this year, on top of the 10 billion euros of cuts already announced in February, and even stricter measures for the 2025 budget, with the Finance Ministry working on a further 20 billion euro cut for 2025 to bring the fiscal deficit back on a downward
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France
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsApr 10, 2024 | 21:02 GMT
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko gives a speech during his annual address to the Belarusian People and the National Assembly in Minsk on Jan. 28, 2022.
In Belarus, a Congress Will Lock in Integration With Russia -- and Lukashenko's Legacy
The upcoming All-Belarusian People's Assembly will further lock in Belarus' integration with Russia and prepare the country for President Alexander Lukashenko's eventual succession process. Belarus' extra-parliamentary body, more commonly referred to as the Belarusian People's Congress (BPC) by the government, will gather April 24-25 and consists of 1,200 members -- primarily officeholders from the legislative and executive branches of power, as well as judiciary members and smaller numbers of delegates from non-government institutions. The convocation will be the newly empowered body's first since it received new powers in a February 2022 constitutional referendum held under neither free nor fair circumstances just three days after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. The constitution's amendments give the BPC the power to certify election results, impeach the president, initiate changes to the constitution, and enact a state of emergency or martial law. The BPC's new constitutionally enshrined functions also include appointing judges to
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Belarus
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsApr 5, 2024 | 16:06 GMT
A rendering of Earth from space at night with abstract 5G connection zones.
The U.S. and U.K. Ramp Up Innovation-Focused AI Collaboration
Despite a recent joint initiative to assess risks from artificial intelligence, the United States and the United Kingdom will maintain their pro-innovation approaches to AI that will keep regulations less robust than those in the European Union, although London's AI laws may grow stricter after the country's upcoming general election. The United States and the United Kingdom signed a first-of-its-kind agreement on AI safety on April 1, becoming the first countries to formally initiate bilateral cooperation on AI testing and risk assessments for emerging AI models. The agreement lays out how the two governments will share technical knowledge, information and talent on AI safety, as well as how they will evaluate private AI models via the United Kingdom's new AI Safety Institute, or AISI, and its U.S. counterpart of the same name. The bilateral agreement and the formation of these two institutes follow the November 2023 AI Safety Summit, which
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United States
Europe
United Kingdom
Cyber
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
AssessmentsApr 4, 2024 | 18:33 GMT
Chinese car manufacturer BYD's stacked electric vehicles wait to be loaded onto a ship at the international container terminal of Taicang Port at Suzhou Port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Sept. 11, 2023.
Chinese Electric Vehicles Prepare to Hit the Great Wall of Western Tariffs
The United States, the European Union and other Western countries will likely restrict the sale of Chinese cars and auto supplies in their domestic markets to reduce national security and economic risks. Over the last six months, the automotive industry -- particularly electric and connected vehicles -- has become the latest front between China and the West over strategic competition as Western governments look to restrict China's role in the sector. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in China on April 3 for five days of face-to-face discussions with Chinese officials over several issues, including U.S. concerns about Chinese subsidies contributing to growing EV production capacity that could flood global markets. Yellen's visit comes after the Commerce Department on Feb. 29 began formulating new rules that aim to safeguard the information and communications technology and services supply chain for connected vehicles; the rules would broadly define connected vehicles and squarely
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United States
Australia
China
Europe
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Situation ReportApr 3, 2024 | 18:58 GMT
U.S.: Cyber Review Board Faults Microsoft for Chinese Hack of Government Emails
The U.S. Cyber Safety Review Board issued a report detailing U.S. technology company Microsoft's failures, including poor cybersecurity, lax corporate culture and a lack of transparency, that led to a breach of U.S. government email systems first discovered in June 2023, The Washington Post reported on April 2.
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United States
China
Cyber
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
AssessmentsApr 1, 2024 | 15:09 GMT
Ecuador's flag waves behind rows of coins.
Can Ecuador Escape Its Cycle of Economic Instability?
While it may help Ecuador avoid a greater crisis in the years ahead, another International Monetary Fund (IMF) program is unlikely to ensure the country's long-term economic and financial stability, as the government will continue to struggle to maintain macroeconomic discipline amid significant political constraints. Ecuador has a long history of political and financial instability. A combination of economic challenges, socio-economic discontent and, at the institutional level, legislative-executive deadlock have prevented successive Ecuadorian governments from pursuing forward-looking economic policies, which, in turn, has contributed to the South American country's recurring financial problems. Since its independence in 1822, Ecuador has defaulted on its debt almost a dozen times. And in just the past 30 years, five Ecuadorian presidents have either been ousted, deposed or impeached, with the most recent being former President Guillermo Lasso (2021-2023), whose term was cut short after he dissolved the National Assembly and triggered early elections.
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Ecuador
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsMar 29, 2024 | 17:54 GMT
A woman carrying a child runs from an area in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, after hearing gunshots on March 20, 2024.
In Haiti, Weeks of Extreme Gang Violence Show No Sign of Easing
Haiti's humanitarian and security crises will likely worsen in the coming weeks, as gangs increase their control of the country and the multinational security deployment faces delays amid political uncertainty. Gang violence has continued in Port-au-Prince and the surrounding area for four straight weeks, with gangs continuing to launch attacks on critical infrastructure, government sites and civilian targets in recent days. On March 25-26, groups set a school on fire and looted and burned multiple pharmacies and clinics near the General Hospital, a major public hospital in the vicinity of multiple government buildings, embassies, and academic institutions. Since the start of the violence on Feb. 29, gangs have repeatedly attempted to expand into previously safer neighborhoods, including Tabarre and Croix-des-Bouquets, in the vicinity of the U.S. Embassy and the Toussaint Louverture International Airport. Gangs also launched attacks on the wealthier areas of Laboule and Thomassin, looting homes and reportedly killing
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Haiti
Military & Security
AssessmentsMar 28, 2024 | 21:32 GMT
A law enforcement officer patrols the scene of the terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall concert venue in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, on March 23, 2024.
How Russia Will -- and Won't -- Respond to the Moscow Terror Attack
The Russian government will respond to the Moscow concert hall attack with concrete but limited actions that will not eliminate the threat of future terrorist attacks in the country, while the Kremlin will use the massacre to maintain and potentially increase Russia's options in pursuit of its war in Ukraine. Hours after armed assailants attacked the Crocus City Hall near Moscow, killing over 100 people, the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed responsibility for the assault. Over the past week, however, numerous high-ranking Russian officials -- including President Vladimir Putin -- have alleged Ukraine was involved in the deadly terrorist attack, while downplaying the ISKP threat. On March 25, Putin said the attack fit ''quite logically into the intimidation campaigns that Kyiv is carrying out'' and that Russia was interested in finding who gave the order to conduct the attack, noting that it was the United States that was
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Russia
Military & Security
Politics
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