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SnapshotsJan 7, 2021 | 18:13 GMT
An aerial view shows the ruins of a village on Jan. 5, 2021, in an area of Nagorno-Karabakh that was recaptured by Azerbaijan in October 2020.
Despite Violations, the Azeri-Armenian Cease-Fire Will Hold -- For Now
The Azeri-Armenian cease-fire will be undermined by both sides on the ground and in their capitals. But for now, Turkish-Russian cooperation and domestic problems in Armenia seem poised to prevent more large, state-on-state clashes. On Dec. 28, Azerbaijan said one soldier was killed by an Armenian armed unit in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, violating the Nov. 10 truce. The clash followed several earlier incidents in December. Nagorno-Karabakh authorities accused Azeri troops of capturing some of their soldiers following clashes between Azeri and Armenian-backed forces between Dec. 11-13 that killed several soldiers on both sides. Azeri and Armenian authorities have begun regularly accusing one another of violating the truce that ended weeks of fighting and resulted in reported casualties on both sides.
Quarterly ForecastsJun 17, 2019 | 14:35 GMT
Stratfor's 2019 Third-Quarter Forecast focuses on the most important factors affecting the international system this quarter.
2019 Third-Quarter Forecast
The United States will remain at the center of world events this quarter as its strategic competition with China escalates, relations with Iran deteriorate and the threat of tariffs or sanctions loom over all.
SnapshotsOct 25, 2018 | 17:33 GMT
Azerbaijan, Armenia: Washington Turns Its Attention to the South Caucasus
For the first time ever, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton is calling on the three countries of the South Caucasus. Bolton visited Azerbaijan on Oct. 24, where he met President Ilham Aliyev and highlighted the importance of Azerbaijan's role in the international energy market. One day later, Bolton visited Armenia to meet acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The U.S. official will round out his tour with a visit to Georgia on Oct. 26. The Caucasus is a major energy corridor and a geopolitical fault line at the intersection of Russia, the West and the Middle East; unsurprisingly, numerous external powers have vied for influence in the region. While the Trump administration has been relatively quiet on the region, a variety of factors have put the area on Washington's radar.
Quarterly ForecastsMar 11, 2018 | 22:11 GMT
The White House will bump up against the laws of the United States and the central tenets of the World Trade Organization as it launches a global trade offensive in the name of national security.
2018 Second-Quarter Forecast
All eyes will be fixed on the White House this quarter as it launches a trade offensive whose collateral damage will span the globe. As economic and political pressure mounts against China, North Korea will use a temporary detente with the South to undermine the United States' containment strategy against it.
SnapshotsFeb 5, 2018 | 20:17 GMT
Azerbaijan: President Accelerates Election Timetable
Azerbaijan's president has chosen to move the country's presidential elections forward six months but has given no official reason for the decision. This has set the rumor mill spinning. The move could be meant to sideline the opposition, to minimize the effect a struggling economy has on the outcome, or it could be because of recent constitutional changes. Regardless, it will be important to watch what comes next.
SnapshotsNov 1, 2017 | 23:01 GMT
Russia, Iran: Cozying up to Counter Washington
The relationship between Russia and Iran is reigniting. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Iran on Nov. 1 to meet with his Azerbaijani and Iranian counterparts in the second summit between the three countries. The trilateral format was set up last year by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to discuss shared concerns and projects in the region. But increasing alignment between Russia and Iran over the last year will give the two countries plenty to discuss.
Contributor PerspectivesOct 2, 2017 | 09:00 GMT
Azerbaijani team Qarabag Futbol Kulubu played host to the first European Champions League match in Baku last week.
From a Ghost Town to the Global Stage
From time to time, a team will emerge in the UEFA Champions League that sends even the most obsessive fans scrambling to figure out just who they are and where they came from. This year, that honor belongs to Qarabag Futbol Kulubu, the champions of Azerbaijan.
Contributor PerspectivesJul 28, 2017 | 08:00 GMT
Control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an effectively autonomous territory that is recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan, though it functions as a de facto part of Armenia, remains a contentious topic in and beyond the Caucasus.
A Conflict of Interests in Nagorno-Karabakh
The dispute over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region is nothing new. The conflict has been simmering, and periodically boiling over, since the end of the Soviet era. (Control of the territory, moreover, was a perennial point of contention for centuries prior.) But after Azerbaijani, Armenian and Karabakh leaders signed a cease-fire in May 1994, followed by an agreement in February 1995 to strengthen the truce under the observation of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the feud quieted down. That is, until early April 2016, when violence broke out anew in Nagorno-Karabakh, marking the most serious escalation since the cease-fire's signing. Tensions are still running high in the conflict zone more than a year later. In fact, the dispute is the most pressing security threat facing the South Caucasus today. Cease-fire violations are a common occurrence on the line of contact between Azerbaijani and Karabakh forces, and the turmoil
Contributor PerspectivesMay 7, 2017 | 13:02 GMT
Unlikely Neighbors
Unlikely Neighbors
It's been a year since clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces left around 200 dead in what has now become known as the "Four-Day War." Despite the carnage, and still locked in a bitter dispute over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, peace between the warring sides is as elusive as ever.
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