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AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsApr 16, 2024 | 18:59 GMT
A photo of the Somali flag.
Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad
A protracted increase in tensions between Somalia's federal government and the state of Puntland over changes to the Somali Constitution will likely widen the rift between Somalia and Ethiopia and could enable al Shabab to expand its jihadist activity. On March 30, Somalia's bicameral federal parliament approved changes to the first four revised chapters of the country's 15-chapter provisional constitution, with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signing off on the changes on March 31. The revisions strengthen the president's authority and sanction the adoption of direct universal suffrage, among other changes. However, the state of Puntland responded by withdrawing its recognition of the federal government on March 31, claiming that Mogadishu had not appropriately consulted its government about the changes. Puntland added that it would act independently from the federal government until the Somali public approves the constitutional changes in a nationwide referendum. Ethiopian State Minister for Foreign Affairs Mesganu
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Ethiopia
Somalia
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 12, 2024 | 19:03 GMT
An image reading 2024 Elections: India
2024 Elections: India
India's 2024 general elections, which will be held from April 19 to June 1, will likely result in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party retaining control of the government.
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India
Politics
AssessmentsApr 10, 2024 | 21:02 GMT
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko gives a speech during his annual address to the Belarusian People and the National Assembly in Minsk on Jan. 28, 2022.
In Belarus, a Congress Will Lock in Integration With Russia -- and Lukashenko's Legacy
The upcoming All-Belarusian People's Assembly will further lock in Belarus' integration with Russia and prepare the country for President Alexander Lukashenko's eventual succession process. Belarus' extra-parliamentary body, more commonly referred to as the Belarusian People's Congress (BPC) by the government, will gather April 24-25 and consists of 1,200 members -- primarily officeholders from the legislative and executive branches of power, as well as judiciary members and smaller numbers of delegates from non-government institutions. The convocation will be the newly empowered body's first since it received new powers in a February 2022 constitutional referendum held under neither free nor fair circumstances just three days after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. The constitution's amendments give the BPC the power to certify election results, impeach the president, initiate changes to the constitution, and enact a state of emergency or martial law. The BPC's new constitutionally enshrined functions also include appointing judges to
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Belarus
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsApr 9, 2024 | 21:21 GMT
Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip.
The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy
Israel's military strategy in the Gaza Strip is more overtly shifting to targeted operations instead of large-scale operations, but Israel's apparent lack of a sustainable governing strategy for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence on the ground. On April 7, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew all but one brigade from Gaza. The same day, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that the Palestinian militant group had been degraded to the point where it no longer ''poses a risk to the citizens of the State of Israel.'' The withdrawal of IDF forces triggered a backlash from the country's right wing, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir threatening to collapse the government if there was no offensive on Rafah. In an effort to push back against the right-wing opposition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on April 8 that ''there is a date'' to attack Rafah and that ''it will happen.''
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
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