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SnapshotsJun 25, 2020 | 18:08 GMT
The U.S.-EU Trade War Is Poised to Intensify
The U.S.-EU trade war continues to brew and could see Brussels and Washington move forward with more tariffs through the rest of the year, even as both sides reckon with the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. On June 24, the U.S. Trade Representative's office published a list for the public comment outlining $4.3 billion worth of European products that could be subject to new tariffs as early as August. This latest escalation is part of its 16-year dispute between Washington and Brussels over government subsidies to the U.S.-based aircraft maker Boeing and its chief European rival, Airbus. Trade negotiations between the United States and European Union have already been virtually non-existent this year, due in part to the pandemic, as well as major disagreements on issues [such as agriculture. Even if they do occur, last-minute trade talks to try to avert the escalation over aircraft subsidies will thus likely fail, as both sides
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ReflectionsJan 14, 2020 | 19:37 GMT
Teams examine the scene of a Ukrainian airliner that crashed being unintentionally targeted by Iranian air defenses shortly after takeoff in Tehran on Jan. 8, 2020.
Why Iran Came Clean on Flight 752
After three days of denial, it was a stunning about-face. On Jan. 11, Iran's Armed Forces General Staff admitted that one of its surface-to-air missile systems shot down Ukrainian Airlines Flight 752 due to human error. The full acknowledgment turned heads, yet there was a reason for Iran's reversal: The country has no desire to turn itself into a pariah but rather find a way to engage with the rest of the globe, limit the impact of U.S. sanctions and negotiate with the West. The frank admission goes to show that such strategic goals influence many of Iran's choices -- including its volte-face on the aviation disaster.
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AssessmentsDec 4, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (R) speaks with French President Emmanuel Macron after signing agreements during a meeting on March 12, 2019, in Addis Ababa.
Why France Is Bullish on Business in Ethiopia
The Horn of Africa, with its booming economies and critical location that abuts key international shipping lanes, has long attracted outside interest -- as well as interminable conflicts. Yet as regional heavyweight Ethiopia opens its economy after decades of closed, state-centric development, new outside players are even more eager to do business there. Among that group is France, which is actively positioning its flagship companies to win big in the country in the years ahead. And luckily for Paris, Addis Ababa's long aversion to overdependence on any single outside power will boost French businesses as they seek to make inroads in a massive market of 110 million people.
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Quarterly ForecastsSep 22, 2019 | 22:59 GMT
2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast
The quarter will be defined by the threat of a conflict with Iran that disrupts oil supplies while the global economy nervously anticipates the next turn in the U.S.-China trade war and the possibility of an ugly U.K.-EU divorce.
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AssessmentsAug 2, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
This image shows Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, delivering news about the central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate.
Tracking the Global Ripples of the Fed's Rate Cut
The last time the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the global financial crisis was in its early stages, Beyonce’s "Single Ladies" topped the Billboard 100 list and George W. Bush still occupied the Oval Office. On July 31, more than a decade after that last loosening of monetary policy, the Fed announced a cut of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate. The decision was driven by several factors, including an increasingly dim outlook for global economic growth, further signs that U.S. inflation is softening and, of course, relentless pressure on the central bank by U.S. President Donald Trump to deliver a rate cut. The Fed’s decision will cascade across the world as other central banks feel pressure to match its moves in dealing with their own slowing economies. However, fears of a global currency war set off by a series of rate cuts are overblown. Nevertheless, Trump’s concerns
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SnapshotsJul 3, 2019 | 20:13 GMT
U.S., Vietnam: With a Small Salvo, the U.S. Brings the Trade War to Vietnam
Over the past decade, Vietnam has become one of Southeast Asia's most vibrant emerging economies. The country's large and inexpensive labor pool, stable political environment, favorable investment policy and strong foreign relations has helped escalate Hanoi's move up the industrial value chain. The trade war between the United States and China has also so far served to Vietnam's benefit, as many companies have moved to the country to escape its fallout. U.S. unhappiness with Vietnam, however, has grown due to Washington's ongoing trade frictions with Hanoi, as evidenced by the U.S. Commerce Department's recent announcement that it would impose duties of up to 456 percent on steel from Vietnam that originated in either South Korea or Taiwan.
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AssessmentsApr 29, 2019 | 05:00 GMT
A Russian military helicopter Mi-26T2V flies during an exhibition flight at the Mil Moscow Helicopter plant outside Moscow on April 3, 2019.
Russia's Defense Industry Finds Itself in a Tailspin
Russia's defense industry is face to face with a major foe, but it's not a foreign military power. The great power has been striving to modernize all branches of its military, but the country's defense industry is struggling due to decreasing volumes of orders, difficulties in attracting high-skilled talent and limits to its technological capabilities. The fall is triggering concern over the competitive strength of Russia's defense industry, whose health is critical if the country is to project itself as a military power in the longer term. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov attributed the reduction in output to a slowdown of orders for military systems, but projections suggest the slowdown is not just a short-term fluctuation; in fact, it's expected to become even worse in the future. The downturn in oil prices has taken a bite out of Russia's bottom line, squeezing spending for the military -- all at a
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Contributor PerspectivesApr 3, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
Chinese workers prepare to load pipes onto a ship in the port of Lianyungang on Jan. 14, 2019.
Trade Disputes Are at the Heart of Washington's New Diplomacy
Reports indicate that the United States and China are closing in on a trade deal that will block new tariffs on Chinese goods entering the United States. But, as we saw at the summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi, Vietnam, in late February, nothing is finished until signatures are put to paper -- in this case, a formal trade agreement. If the United States and China come to an agreement, will the Trump administration rest on its laurels? Not likely. After China, we may see the Japanese, the Europeans and the United Kingdom -- even amid the unfolding Brexit drama -- step in to fill the American void.
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AssessmentsDec 21, 2018 | 11:00 GMT
30 Years Later: The Impact of the Lockerbie Tragedy
Thirty years ago, pieces of a Boeing 747-121 that was carrying 243 passengers and 16 crew as Pan Am Flight 103 rained down on the village of Lockerbie, turning the picturesque Scottish town into a fiery scene of horror. The jumbo jet had broken apart in midair after a bomb in a suitcase in its hold detonated at 31,000 feet, sending flaming wreckage plummeting onto houses below. It's estimated that only two minutes elapsed between the time the device detonated and the debris slammed into Lockerbie. Everyone on the plane died, as did 11 people on the ground. The intense investigation that followed concluded that the improvised explosive device that brought down Flight 103 on Dec. 21, 1988, had been built and placed aboard the aircraft by Libyan intelligence agents and provided evidence that the attack had been ordered by Libya. Beyond the emotional pain suffered by the friends and families
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