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SnapshotsJan 21, 2021 | 22:07 GMT
Spanish newspapers show images of newly sworn-in U.S. President Joe Biden on Jan. 21, 2021, in Madrid, Spain.
The EU Welcomes Biden, But Some Disputes Will Remain
Joe Biden’s presidency portends greater U.S.-EU coordination on areas like climate change, COVID-19 and human rights. But Washington and Brussels will likely still spar over trade, tech policy and defense spending. On the day of Biden’s Jan. 20 inauguration, European Council President Charles Michel called for a “founding pact” between the United States and the European Union based on five priorities: boosting multilateral cooperation, fighting against COVID-19, tackling climate change, rebuilding the global economy with a digital transformation, and joining forces on security and peace. Also on Jan. 20, the European Union’s chief diplomat, Joseph Borrell, invited Biden’s new Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, to a meeting with EU foreign ministers in Lisbon, Portugal, on March 4-5 to restart cooperation.
On StratforDec 11, 2020 | 11:00 GMT
Grading Our 2020 Annual Forecast as 2021 Approaches
Every December here at Stratfor, we sit down and do the critical work of self-assessment, taking the forecast we made the previous December and seeing how it stacked up against actual world events. Even with the pandemic throwing the world a little askew, we still had a strong 2020 forecast with quite a few hits and just a handful of misses. Without further ado, we present the Stratfor 2020 Annual Forecast Scorecard.
AssessmentsNov 10, 2020 | 18:13 GMT
Then-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden participates in a bilateral meeting at the European Council headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Feb. 6, 2015.
What a Biden Presidency Means for Europe-U.S. Relations
Cooperation between the United States and Europe on issues including trade, defense, climate change and China will deepen under U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, who will seek closer coordination with Germany and France without abandoning Washington’s bilateral relationship with the United Kingdom. After Biden was declared the winner of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 7, countries including Germany, France and the United Kingdom sent their congratulations and called for increased cooperation with the United States. During the electoral campaign, Biden said he would reverse outgoing president Donald Trump’s unilateralism on global issues and strengthen the United States’ international alliances. Under Biden, the United States and the European Union will thus ikely end their current tit-for-tat policy of tariffs and counter-tariffs and seek negotiated solutions, but the two sides will continue to have trade disputes.
SnapshotsJun 25, 2020 | 18:08 GMT
The U.S.-EU Trade War Is Poised to Intensify
The U.S.-EU trade war continues to brew and could see Brussels and Washington move forward with more tariffs through the rest of the year, even as both sides reckon with the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. On June 24, the U.S. Trade Representative's office published a list for the public comment outlining $4.3 billion worth of European products that could be subject to new tariffs as early as August. This latest escalation is part of its 16-year dispute between Washington and Brussels over government subsidies to the U.S.-based aircraft maker Boeing and its chief European rival, Airbus. Trade negotiations between the United States and European Union have already been virtually non-existent this year, due in part to the pandemic, as well as major disagreements on issues [such as agriculture. Even if they do occur, last-minute trade talks to try to avert the escalation over aircraft subsidies will thus likely fail, as both sides
ReflectionsJan 14, 2020 | 19:37 GMT
Teams examine the scene of a Ukrainian airliner that crashed being unintentionally targeted by Iranian air defenses shortly after takeoff in Tehran on Jan. 8, 2020.
Why Iran Came Clean on Flight 752
After three days of denial, it was a stunning about-face. On Jan. 11, Iran's Armed Forces General Staff admitted that one of its surface-to-air missile systems shot down Ukrainian Airlines Flight 752 due to human error. The full acknowledgment turned heads, yet there was a reason for Iran's reversal: The country has no desire to turn itself into a pariah but rather find a way to engage with the rest of the globe, limit the impact of U.S. sanctions and negotiate with the West. The frank admission goes to show that such strategic goals influence many of Iran's choices -- including its volte-face on the aviation disaster.
AssessmentsDec 4, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (R) speaks with French President Emmanuel Macron after signing agreements during a meeting on March 12, 2019, in Addis Ababa.
Why France Is Bullish on Business in Ethiopia
The Horn of Africa, with its booming economies and critical location that abuts key international shipping lanes, has long attracted outside interest -- as well as interminable conflicts. Yet as regional heavyweight Ethiopia opens its economy after decades of closed, state-centric development, new outside players are even more eager to do business there. Among that group is France, which is actively positioning its flagship companies to win big in the country in the years ahead. And luckily for Paris, Addis Ababa's long aversion to overdependence on any single outside power will boost French businesses as they seek to make inroads in a massive market of 110 million people.
Quarterly ForecastsSep 22, 2019 | 22:59 GMT
2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast
The quarter will be defined by the threat of a conflict with Iran that disrupts oil supplies while the global economy nervously anticipates the next turn in the U.S.-China trade war and the possibility of an ugly U.K.-EU divorce.
AssessmentsAug 2, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
This image shows Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, delivering news about the central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate.
Tracking the Global Ripples of the Fed's Rate Cut
The last time the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the global financial crisis was in its early stages, Beyonce’s "Single Ladies" topped the Billboard 100 list and George W. Bush still occupied the Oval Office. On July 31, more than a decade after that last loosening of monetary policy, the Fed announced a cut of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate. The decision was driven by several factors, including an increasingly dim outlook for global economic growth, further signs that U.S. inflation is softening and, of course, relentless pressure on the central bank by U.S. President Donald Trump to deliver a rate cut. The Fed’s decision will cascade across the world as other central banks feel pressure to match its moves in dealing with their own slowing economies. However, fears of a global currency war set off by a series of rate cuts are overblown. Nevertheless, Trump’s concerns
SnapshotsJul 3, 2019 | 20:13 GMT
U.S., Vietnam: With a Small Salvo, the U.S. Brings the Trade War to Vietnam
Over the past decade, Vietnam has become one of Southeast Asia's most vibrant emerging economies. The country's large and inexpensive labor pool, stable political environment, favorable investment policy and strong foreign relations has helped escalate Hanoi's move up the industrial value chain. The trade war between the United States and China has also so far served to Vietnam's benefit, as many companies have moved to the country to escape its fallout. U.S. unhappiness with Vietnam, however, has grown due to Washington's ongoing trade frictions with Hanoi, as evidenced by the U.S. Commerce Department's recent announcement that it would impose duties of up to 456 percent on steel from Vietnam that originated in either South Korea or Taiwan.
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