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AssessmentsOct 21, 2019 | 13:10 GMT
Posters for Renamo's presidential candidate, Ossufo Momade, line a wall ahead of Mozambique's Oct. 15 polls.
In Mozambique, a Rigged Election Risks Opening Pandora's Box
The ballots from Mozambique's Oct. 15 general election are still being tallied. But all evidence so far points to another sizable victory for the Mozambique Liberation Front, commonly referred to as Frelimo. Such an outcome was expected, given that the ruling party's dominance over the country's political and economic systems since the mid-1970s. Indeed, despite the introduction of multiparty democracy decades ago, Frelimo continues to reign over the country -- much to the chagrin of the militant Mozambique National Resistance Movement (Renamo).  Despite Maputo's recent peace deal with Renamo, mounting evidence of electoral misconduct indicate the Frelimo government is still waging a covert war against its chief political rival. In response, Renamo could send its fighters back to battle in Mozambique's central regions, which would risk distracting Maputo from a much greater threat brewing up north. 
AssessmentsAug 19, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi (left) and Mozambican National Resistance leader Ossufo Momade display the cease-fire agreement they signed in Maputo on Aug. 6, 2019.
Can Mozambique Shield Its Energy Investments From Escalating Terrorism?
Mozambique's government recently made headlines by signing a peace agreement with the longtime rebel group, Mozambican National Resistance. The deal has since been hailed as a harbinger for greater stability in the country. But a new insurgency in Mozambique's far north now poses a much greater threat, given its proximity to the East African nation's burgeoning offshore energy sector. Since late 2017, unknown assailants have attacked dozens of villages and some government positions in Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province. The attackers have yet to list any public demands, though there are rumors that they may have regional or international jihadist connections. But while much remains unknown, understanding the environment from which the conflict has emerged could provide hints as to what might be driving it -- and whether the government will be able to stop it before foreign oil and gas firms in the region start to pull their operations.
GuidanceMar 26, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
Girls collect artificial flowers from the rubble of a building destroyed by Cyclone Idai at Sacred Heart Catholic Church in Beira, Mozambique, on March 24, 2019.
The Geopolitical Toll of Cyclone Idai in Southern Africa
Cyclone Idai made landfall in Mozambique on March 14 -- leaving behind it a path of catastrophic destruction that has so far taken the lives of an estimated 750 people across southern Africa. But in addition to the heartbreaking impact on people's lives and livelihoods, the cyclone's aftermath has damaged a great deal of critical economic infrastructure in the three African countries that shared the brunt of Idai's wrath: Mozambique, Zimbabwe and South Africa. And as these countries look to pick up the pieces after the worst-ever natural disaster to hit the southern hemisphere, the systemic deficiencies further exposed amid the cyclone’s aftermath may prove harder to rectify.
On SecurityFeb 19, 2019 | 06:30 GMT
Mexican marines patrol the beach of Playacar, near the seaside tourist resort of Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo State, on Feb. 14, 2019.
Murder in Mexico: What's the Danger to an American Tourist?
With spring break right around the corner, our Threat Lens team is once again in demand, as clients -- along with a wide array of friends and family -- are all wondering about the safety of a Mexican getaway for some spring sun. Of course, the concern is understandable. As our 2019 Mexico cartel forecast reported, murders in the country hit their highest rate ever last year and, worryingly, there's nothing to suggest that this year will be any different. Ultimately, however, the threat may not be as great as feared.
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