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AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 09:00 GMT
2024 Elections: The European Union
Opinion polls suggest the June 9 European Parliament election will see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains across several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties, with potentially significant policy implications for the bloc.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 19, 2024 | 20:48 GMT
China: Seasonal Floods, Droughts To Fuel Infrastructure, Energy Buildout
China's Minister for Water Resources Li Guoying noted in a visit to southwestern Yunnan province that "we must get ready for a worst case scenario" amid the province's ongoing drought, and he urged local authorities to meet water needs for households and agriculture, the South China Morning Post reported on April 19.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 17, 2024 | 20:19 GMT
Russia, China: Chinese Exports to Russia Fall for First Time Since 2022 Amid Payment Issues
According to Chinese customs data, China's exports to Russia fell almost 16% in March from a year earlier, marking the first year-over-year decline since 2022, Bloomberg reported on April 17.
READ MORESnapshotsApr 17, 2024 | 17:00 GMT
Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime
While an impending leadership change in Singapore portends short-term policy continuity, it could lead to a snap election and may signal that the ruling party's monopolistic political leadership is gradually waning. On April 15, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that he would step down in favor of his chosen successor, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, who will become the country's fourth prime minister since 1965. The transition is set for May 15. After the transfer of authority, Wong will lead the ruling People's Action Party, or PAP, in preparation for the city-state's next general election, which is due by November 2025. Lee will serve as a senior minister in Wong's Cabinet following the handover.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 16, 2024 | 19:35 GMT
China: Nuclear Energy Expands Rapidly, but Faces Geopolitical Headwinds
China released its Nuclear Energy Development Blue Book 2024, which noted that China's operational capacity of nuclear energy in 2023 was 55 reactors with a total installed capacity of 57.03 gigawatts (ranked third in the world), state news outlet Global Times reported on April 15.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 15, 2024 | 18:57 GMT
Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China
The recent summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida indicates the indispensability of the expanding Japan-U.S. defense partnership to both countries' Asia-Pacific policy agendas and the secondary nature of the United States' ties with South Korea, while new U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict. Biden and Kishida met on April 10 for an hour and a half in a closed-door meeting, followed by a joint press conference at the White House and a state dinner for Kishida and his wife later that night. A joint statement later released by both sides explored the geopolitical, industrial, and defense content of the meeting. On the geopolitical side, much ink was spilled affirming ideological common ground, including a free and open international order; opposing Chinese efforts to change the territorial status
READ MORESituation ReportApr 12, 2024 | 17:15 GMT
Ecuador, Mexico: Mexico Files Complaint With ICJ to Remove Ecuador From UN
On April 11, Mexico submitted formal proceedings against Ecuador in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), arguing that the latter "violated Mexico's rights under customary and conventional international law" by raiding the Mexican embassy in Ecuador on April 5, and therefore should be suspended from the United Nations, according to an April 11 press release from the International Court of Justice.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 12, 2024 | 15:25 GMT
Europe's Green Hydrogen Future, Part 2: Charting the Path
Despite an uncertain outlook amid structural limitations and recent economic headwinds, green hydrogen may help accelerate the European Union's decarbonization and strengthen its energy security while bringing profound global economic and geopolitical implications. In recent years, a global energy crisis, supply chain disruptions, high inflation and rising borrowing costs have driven up costs for new green hydrogen projects and reduced the impact of government support, while a recent fall in natural gas prices has widened the cost gap between green and fossil fuels-based hydrogen. Meanwhile, there is still some degree of regulatory uncertainty in Europe and North America, resulting in lengthy time lags between the announcement of support schemes and the actual disbursement of funds to project developers. As a result, only a fraction of newly announced green hydrogen initiatives currently reach a final investment decision. Moreover, most government action has so far focused on supporting production rather than increasing
READ MORESituation ReportApr 9, 2024 | 15:50 GMT
EU, China: Brussels to Launch Anti-Subsidy Probe into Chinese Wind Turbines
European Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager is set to announce that the European Commission is launching a new anti-subsidy investigation into imports of Chinese wind turbines during a speech at Princeton University in the United States, Politico reported April 9.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 5, 2024 | 21:25 GMT
Australia: Country's First Cobalt Refinery To Start Construction This Year
Australian mining and mineral processing company Cobalt Blue said it is on track to begin construction of Australia's first cobalt-nickel refinery by December, Nikkei Asia reported on April 5.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 5, 2024 | 18:40 GMT
China, Uganda: Oil Pipeline Shows Beijing's Energy, Belt and Road Priorities
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni stated on X, formerly Twitter, that Beijing has shown interest in working with China's national financial institutions to support the East African Crude Oil Pipeline project, Bloomberg reported on April 5.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 5, 2024 | 18:35 GMT
U.S., China: Yellen in China, Wang in U.S., All Chatting About Economic Restrictions
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Guangzhou, where she asserted that China's industrial overcapacity in new energy technologies and reliance on export-led growth was not only hurting U.S. firms but holding back China's growth, Reuters reported on April 5.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 5, 2024 | 16:22 GMT
Argentina, China: Argentine Government Considers Probing Remote Chinese Space Station
The Argentine government plans to inspect China's space station in the Neuquen Province, according to a high-level cabinet official cited in an April 4 report from the Buenos Aires Times.
READ MORESnapshotsApr 5, 2024 | 16:06 GMT
The U.S. and U.K. Ramp Up Innovation-Focused AI Collaboration
Despite a recent joint initiative to assess risks from artificial intelligence, the United States and the United Kingdom will maintain their pro-innovation approaches to AI that will keep regulations less robust than those in the European Union, although London's AI laws may grow stricter after the country's upcoming general election. The United States and the United Kingdom signed a first-of-its-kind agreement on AI safety on April 1, becoming the first countries to formally initiate bilateral cooperation on AI testing and risk assessments for emerging AI models. The agreement lays out how the two governments will share technical knowledge, information and talent on AI safety, as well as how they will evaluate private AI models via the United Kingdom's new AI Safety Institute, or AISI, and its U.S. counterpart of the same name. The bilateral agreement and the formation of these two institutes follow the November 2023 AI Safety Summit, which
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 4, 2024 | 18:33 GMT
Chinese Electric Vehicles Prepare to Hit the Great Wall of Western Tariffs
The United States, the European Union and other Western countries will likely restrict the sale of Chinese cars and auto supplies in their domestic markets to reduce national security and economic risks. Over the last six months, the automotive industry -- particularly electric and connected vehicles -- has become the latest front between China and the West over strategic competition as Western governments look to restrict China's role in the sector. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in China on April 3 for five days of face-to-face discussions with Chinese officials over several issues, including U.S. concerns about Chinese subsidies contributing to growing EV production capacity that could flood global markets. Yellen's visit comes after the Commerce Department on Feb. 29 began formulating new rules that aim to safeguard the information and communications technology and services supply chain for connected vehicles; the rules would broadly define connected vehicles and squarely
READ MORESituation ReportApr 4, 2024 | 16:28 GMT
EU, China: Brussels Opens Anti-Subsidy Probes Against Two Chinese Solar Panel Manufacturers
The European Union launched two investigations under its Foreign Subsidies Regulation into Chinese solar panel manufacturers bidding in a public procurement procedure for the construction of a 110 megawatt solar park in Romania, the European Commission revealed in a press release published on April 3.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 3, 2024 | 18:16 GMT
Europe's Green Hydrogen Future, Part 1: Hopes and Constraints
The European Union is betting on green hydrogen to help reach its 2050 net-zero targets while maintaining industrial and economic competitiveness thanks to the fuel's potential to decarbonize hard-to-abate productive sectors of the economy, but significant constraints cast doubt over this strategy's viability. The European Union considers green hydrogen, which is hydrogen produced entirely using renewable energy resources, a pivotal element of its decarbonization strategy. This is primarily because green hydrogen could significantly reduce the carbon emissions of so-called hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industries (such as cement, steel and chemicals) and activities like heavy-duty transport (such as trucking, shipping and aviation). For this reason, in 2020 the European Union adopted its hydrogen strategy, which aims to scale up and decarbonize hydrogen production in the bloc with the ultimate ambitious goal of producing 10 million tons of green hydrogen by 2030. In 2022, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 28, 2024 | 21:32 GMT
How Russia Will -- and Won't -- Respond to the Moscow Terror Attack
The Russian government will respond to the Moscow concert hall attack with concrete but limited actions that will not eliminate the threat of future terrorist attacks in the country, while the Kremlin will use the massacre to maintain and potentially increase Russia's options in pursuit of its war in Ukraine. Hours after armed assailants attacked the Crocus City Hall near Moscow, killing over 100 people, the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed responsibility for the assault. Over the past week, however, numerous high-ranking Russian officials -- including President Vladimir Putin -- have alleged Ukraine was involved in the deadly terrorist attack, while downplaying the ISKP threat. On March 25, Putin said the attack fit ''quite logically into the intimidation campaigns that Kyiv is carrying out'' and that Russia was interested in finding who gave the order to conduct the attack, noting that it was the United States that was
READ MORESituation ReportMar 28, 2024 | 16:42 GMT
China: Bank Profits Dip as Debt Exposure to Real Estate, Municipalities Mounts
Four of China's largest banks -- including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Bank of Communications -- revealed dips in their net interest margins to 1.28%-1.61% for 2023, down from 1.48%-1.92% in 2022 and below the 1.8% level regarded as a sign of decent profitability, Reuters reported on March 28.
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