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AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsApr 17, 2024 | 17:00 GMT
A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.
Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime
While an impending leadership change in Singapore portends short-term policy continuity, it could lead to a snap election and may signal that the ruling party's monopolistic political leadership is gradually waning. On April 15, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that he would step down in favor of his chosen successor, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, who will become the country's fourth prime minister since 1965. The transition is set for May 15. After the transfer of authority, Wong will lead the ruling People's Action Party, or PAP, in preparation for the city-state's next general election, which is due by November 2025. Lee will serve as a senior minister in Wong's Cabinet following the handover.
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Singapore
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsApr 12, 2024 | 19:03 GMT
An image reading 2024 Elections: India
2024 Elections: India
India's 2024 general elections, which will be held from April 19 to June 1, will likely result in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party retaining control of the government.
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India
Politics
Situation ReportApr 12, 2024 | 17:15 GMT
Ecuador, Mexico: Mexico Files Complaint With ICJ to Remove Ecuador From UN
On April 11, Mexico submitted formal proceedings against Ecuador in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), arguing that the latter "violated Mexico's rights under customary and conventional international law" by raiding the Mexican embassy in Ecuador on April 5, and therefore should be suspended from the United Nations, according to an April 11 press release from the International Court of Justice. 
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Ecuador
Mexico
Politics
AssessmentsApr 10, 2024 | 21:02 GMT
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko gives a speech during his annual address to the Belarusian People and the National Assembly in Minsk on Jan. 28, 2022.
In Belarus, a Congress Will Lock in Integration With Russia -- and Lukashenko's Legacy
The upcoming All-Belarusian People's Assembly will further lock in Belarus' integration with Russia and prepare the country for President Alexander Lukashenko's eventual succession process. Belarus' extra-parliamentary body, more commonly referred to as the Belarusian People's Congress (BPC) by the government, will gather April 24-25 and consists of 1,200 members -- primarily officeholders from the legislative and executive branches of power, as well as judiciary members and smaller numbers of delegates from non-government institutions. The convocation will be the newly empowered body's first since it received new powers in a February 2022 constitutional referendum held under neither free nor fair circumstances just three days after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. The constitution's amendments give the BPC the power to certify election results, impeach the president, initiate changes to the constitution, and enact a state of emergency or martial law. The BPC's new constitutionally enshrined functions also include appointing judges to
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Belarus
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 8, 2024 | 19:21 GMT
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (center), flanked by two other U.S. officials, is seen during a meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo (not pictured) on the sidelines of the 78th United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York City on Sept. 22, 2023.
What To Watch for During the Inaugural U.S.-Japan-Philippines Summit
A trilateral partnership between the United States, Japan and the Philippines focusing on cyberdefense, joint maritime patrols and supply chain resilience will likely help improve freedom of navigation and economic security in the South China Sea, but it may also raise the risk of trade disputes and conflict with China. U.S. President Joe Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a state visit on April 10, followed by a trilateral summit on April 11 where Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will also be present. The trilateral summit between the United States, the Philippines and Japan will be the first of its kind and will focus on three main areas: national security, economic security and mitigating climate change, with an eye toward institutionalizing cooperation via formal dialogue mechanisms in the medium-to-long term. The summit will likely conclude with the issuance of a joint vision statement laying out each country's
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United States
Japan
Philippines
Cyber
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
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