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AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 20:21 GMT
An aerial view shows residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, in eastern China's Zhejiang province, on March 15, 2024.
Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China
China's efforts to rein in unsustainable investment in the infrastructure and real estate sector will not lead to a systemic financial crisis, but broader reforms aimed at substantially reducing excess savings or creating more profitable investment opportunities that would help rebalance the economy toward more sustainable medium-term growth will remain unlikely in the coming years. Chinese economic policymakers have been seeking to rein in unsustainable investment in infrastructure and the real estate sector amid macro-financial risks caused by a very high savings rate in the context of a declining profitability of investment. The very structure of Chinese investment, which is concentrated in infrastructure and housing, is generating declining and increasingly negative financial returns. A declining profitability of investment is to be expected, as China approaches the technological frontier and the marginal productivity of capital declines, and as highly profitable investment projects become scarcer. The recurring misallocation of capital or overinvestment
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China
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 09:00 GMT
2024 Elections: The European Union
2024 Elections: The European Union
Opinion polls suggest the June 9 European Parliament election will see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains across several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties, with potentially significant policy implications for the bloc.
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Europe
Politics
AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsApr 17, 2024 | 17:00 GMT
A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.
Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime
While an impending leadership change in Singapore portends short-term policy continuity, it could lead to a snap election and may signal that the ruling party's monopolistic political leadership is gradually waning. On April 15, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that he would step down in favor of his chosen successor, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, who will become the country's fourth prime minister since 1965. The transition is set for May 15. After the transfer of authority, Wong will lead the ruling People's Action Party, or PAP, in preparation for the city-state's next general election, which is due by November 2025. Lee will serve as a senior minister in Wong's Cabinet following the handover.
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Singapore
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsApr 16, 2024 | 18:59 GMT
A photo of the Somali flag.
Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad
A protracted increase in tensions between Somalia's federal government and the state of Puntland over changes to the Somali Constitution will likely widen the rift between Somalia and Ethiopia and could enable al Shabab to expand its jihadist activity. On March 30, Somalia's bicameral federal parliament approved changes to the first four revised chapters of the country's 15-chapter provisional constitution, with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signing off on the changes on March 31. The revisions strengthen the president's authority and sanction the adoption of direct universal suffrage, among other changes. However, the state of Puntland responded by withdrawing its recognition of the federal government on March 31, claiming that Mogadishu had not appropriately consulted its government about the changes. Puntland added that it would act independently from the federal government until the Somali public approves the constitutional changes in a nationwide referendum. Ethiopian State Minister for Foreign Affairs Mesganu
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Ethiopia
Somalia
Military & Security
Politics
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