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SnapshotsApr 24, 2024 | 21:15 GMT
People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.
In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation
Pro-Russian political forces will step up efforts to destabilize Moldova ahead of the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, slowing and potentially endangering Chisinau's pro-European course. On April 16, the Moldovan Constitutional Court approved holding a referendum on constitutional amendments proposed by the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) regarding the country's European integration. The referendum will mandate several text changes and additions to Moldova's constitution ''reaffirming the European identity of the people of Moldova'' and the ''irreversibility of Moldova's European course.'' Referendum participants will be asked, ''Do you support Moldova's accession to the European Union?'' -- a provision that a majority of Moldovans are expected to support. The referendum is aimed at boosting the electoral chances of incumbent president Maya Sandu, because it will take place simultaneously with the first round of the country's presidential election on Oct. 20. On April 22, Moldovan pro-Russia opposition politicians
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Russia
Moldova
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 23, 2024 | 19:15 GMT
Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024.
Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?
The continuation of intense fighting in eastern Congo could prompt a military escalation between Congo and Rwanda that would threaten to splinter Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi's ruling coalition, while providing opportunities for unrest to emerge in the country's mineral-rich Katanga region. On April 1, President Tshisekedi appointed Judith Suminwa Tuluka as prime minister. Tuluka's appointment comes as Tshisekedi secured reelection for a second term in Congo's contested December 2023 presidential election, which most outside observers concluded was marred with significant irregularities. But while official results saw Tshisekedi secure the presidency in a landslide, his Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) party only secured 69 out of 500 seats in the legislative elections, making Tshisekedi heavily reliant on other parties within his Sacred Union coalition, which regroups over 35 parties, to govern. In this context, Tshisekedi's appointment of Tuluka -- a UDPS member who is widely considered to be a
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Democratic Republic of the Congo
Rwanda
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 20:21 GMT
An aerial view shows residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, in eastern China's Zhejiang province, on March 15, 2024.
Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China
China's efforts to rein in unsustainable investment in the infrastructure and real estate sector will not lead to a systemic financial crisis, but broader reforms aimed at substantially reducing excess savings or creating more profitable investment opportunities that would help rebalance the economy toward more sustainable medium-term growth will remain unlikely in the coming years. Chinese economic policymakers have been seeking to rein in unsustainable investment in infrastructure and the real estate sector amid macro-financial risks caused by a very high savings rate in the context of a declining profitability of investment. The very structure of Chinese investment, which is concentrated in infrastructure and housing, is generating declining and increasingly negative financial returns. A declining profitability of investment is to be expected, as China approaches the technological frontier and the marginal productivity of capital declines, and as highly profitable investment projects become scarcer. The recurring misallocation of capital or overinvestment
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China
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 09:00 GMT
2024 Elections: The European Union
2024 Elections: The European Union
Opinion polls suggest the June 9 European Parliament election will see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains across several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties, with potentially significant policy implications for the bloc.
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Europe
Politics
AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Situation ReportApr 18, 2024 | 16:25 GMT
U.K., China: London Considers New Restrictions on Emerging Tech Over Security Risks
Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden said the United Kingdom is considering possible new outbound investment and export restrictions on emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, semiconductors, cryogenic equipment and facial recognition technology due to potential security risks tied to technology transfers to adversarial countries such as Russia and China, Bloomberg reported on April 18.
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