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AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 20:21 GMT
An aerial view shows residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, in eastern China's Zhejiang province, on March 15, 2024.
Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China
China's efforts to rein in unsustainable investment in the infrastructure and real estate sector will not lead to a systemic financial crisis, but broader reforms aimed at substantially reducing excess savings or creating more profitable investment opportunities that would help rebalance the economy toward more sustainable medium-term growth will remain unlikely in the coming years. Chinese economic policymakers have been seeking to rein in unsustainable investment in infrastructure and the real estate sector amid macro-financial risks caused by a very high savings rate in the context of a declining profitability of investment. The very structure of Chinese investment, which is concentrated in infrastructure and housing, is generating declining and increasingly negative financial returns. A declining profitability of investment is to be expected, as China approaches the technological frontier and the marginal productivity of capital declines, and as highly profitable investment projects become scarcer. The recurring misallocation of capital or overinvestment
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China
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 09:00 GMT
2024 Elections: The European Union
2024 Elections: The European Union
Opinion polls suggest the June 9 European Parliament election will see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains across several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties, with potentially significant policy implications for the bloc.
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Europe
Politics
AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsApr 9, 2024 | 21:21 GMT
Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip.
The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy
Israel's military strategy in the Gaza Strip is more overtly shifting to targeted operations instead of large-scale operations, but Israel's apparent lack of a sustainable governing strategy for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence on the ground. On April 7, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew all but one brigade from Gaza. The same day, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that the Palestinian militant group had been degraded to the point where it no longer ''poses a risk to the citizens of the State of Israel.'' The withdrawal of IDF forces triggered a backlash from the country's right wing, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir threatening to collapse the government if there was no offensive on Rafah. In an effort to push back against the right-wing opposition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on April 8 that ''there is a date'' to attack Rafah and that ''it will happen.''
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
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