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AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsApr 1, 2024 | 15:09 GMT
Ecuador's flag waves behind rows of coins.
Can Ecuador Escape Its Cycle of Economic Instability?
While it may help Ecuador avoid a greater crisis in the years ahead, another International Monetary Fund (IMF) program is unlikely to ensure the country's long-term economic and financial stability, as the government will continue to struggle to maintain macroeconomic discipline amid significant political constraints. Ecuador has a long history of political and financial instability. A combination of economic challenges, socio-economic discontent and, at the institutional level, legislative-executive deadlock have prevented successive Ecuadorian governments from pursuing forward-looking economic policies, which, in turn, has contributed to the South American country's recurring financial problems. Since its independence in 1822, Ecuador has defaulted on its debt almost a dozen times. And in just the past 30 years, five Ecuadorian presidents have either been ousted, deposed or impeached, with the most recent being former President Guillermo Lasso (2021-2023), whose term was cut short after he dissolved the National Assembly and triggered early elections.
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Ecuador
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Quarterly ForecastsMar 25, 2024 | 00:04 GMT
2024 Second-Quarter Forecast
During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.
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AssessmentsDec 5, 2023 | 21:50 GMT
Supporters of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi gather in El Korba Square in Cairo, Egypt, on Oct. 2, 2023, as they wait for him to announce his candidacy in the upcoming presidential election.
What Another El-Sisi Term Would Mean for Egypt
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's widely expected re-election will free him to pursue economic reforms and pragmatic ties with Israel, as well as measures aimed at growing the country's tourism and energy sectors. El-Sisi will very likely win a third term in Egypt's Dec. 10-12 presidential election -- which will be the country's first nationwide election since 2018 -- thanks to his government's sweeping crackdown on opposition candidates and supporters, along with its installation of administrative barriers that have dissuaded potential candidates from being added to the ballot. El-Sisi retains the support of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, which heavily influences which candidates can run for office. But he has lost some support among Egyptian voters amid the country's worsening economic crisis. Winning re-election by a large margin would enable el-Sisi to claim he has a popular mandate to enact the policies he pledged to pursue during his third
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Egypt
Israel
Economics
Politics
On GeopoliticsJan 5, 2023 | 17:18 GMT
EU flags fly outside the headquarters of the European Commission on Feb. 23, 2022, in Brussels, Belgium. 
The EU's Shifting Balance of Power
Between 2020 and 2022, three heavily disruptive geopolitical events altered the balance of power within the European Union, increasing the influence of countries in the south and the east of the bloc to the detriment of traditionally more influential countries in the north. These new power dynamics will not only shape EU domestic and foreign policy in the coming years, but likely lead to internal conflict further down the line that will once more test the bloc's internal unity.
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Europe
Germany
Poland
Spain
Italy
Hungary
Economics
Energy
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsDec 23, 2022 | 15:33 GMT
The seat of Germany's lower house of parliament stands at dusk on the day police conducted nationwide raids against a suspected insurrectionist group on Dec. 7, 2022, in Berlin, Germany.
What Lies Ahead for Germany's Coalition Government
Germany's coalition government is unlikely to collapse in 2023, but a combination of economic challenges and electoral tests will create new internal tensions that could lead to incongruent policymaking. Germany's first-ever, three-way ruling coalition has survived an especially tumultuous first year in power, despite internal ideological differences and the immense external challenges brought on by Russia's shock invasion of Ukraine, which happened less than three months after the alliance took office on Dec. 8, 2021. Over the past year, the ideological diversity of the ruling bloc's three partners -- the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the environmentalist Greens and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) -- led to difficulties in the coalition finding common ground and managing the competing policy priorities of its constituent parties. But most importantly, the government's first year in power was almost entirely shaped by the Ukraine conflict and, in particular, the subsequent energy and inflation
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Germany
Economics
Energy
Politics
AssessmentsDec 21, 2022 | 20:52 GMT
A photo taken on Oct. 14, 2022, shows cranes picking up coal at a port of the Pha Lai thermal power plant in Vietnam's Hai Duong province.
The West Gives Vietnam's Climate Goals a Shot in the Arm -- And a Shot at Success
Western support is giving Vietnam's ambitious climate goals a shot in the arm, but Hanoi will still struggle to fully achieve those goals due to misaligned government approaches and the country's difficult operating environment for investors. On Dec. 14, Vietnam and the International Partners Group (IGP) -- the G-7 countries, plus Denmark and Norway -- signed a $15.5 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) to help Vietnam invest in renewable energy and reduce its reliance on coal and other fossil fuels. Vietnam joins South Africa and Indonesia in signing partnerships with the IGP, which has singled out India and Senegal for its next JETP agreements. Under the program, IGP countries promise to mobilize $7.75 billion in public sector finance over the next 3-5 years and $7.75 billion in additional private sector finance through coordination with the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) working group.
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Vietnam
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
AssessmentsNov 9, 2022 | 20:12 GMT
Visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and members of his delegation attend a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Nov. 4, 2022.
What to Take From German Chancellor Scholz's Visit to China
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's recent trip to China indicates that Berlin will continue to maintain trade ties with Beijing while also working to gradually reduce critical dependencies, despite mounting external and domestic pressure for a more aggressive decoupling. Scholz visited China on Nov. 3-4 accompanied by a large business delegation, the first Western leader to do so since Chinese President Xi Jinping secured an unprecedented third term in October. The two leaders condemned the threat of nuclear weapons in Ukraine and discussed the mutual need to ensure the stability of food and energy supply chains. Finally, as Scholz was flying back to Berlin on Nov. 4, the German Chancellery posted a tweet that noted the ''reliability and trust'' between Germany and China as the basis for a ''political partnership'' between the two countries. As he was flying back to Berlin on Nov. 4, Scholz tweeted that ''reliability and trust [formed]
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China
Germany
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsNov 3, 2022 | 17:43 GMT
Workers at Polish natural gas company Gaz-System stand among pipes at a compressor station of the new Baltic Pipe natural gas pipeline on the day of its official opening on Sept. 27, 2022, near Goleniow, Poland.
Can Europe's Industrial Sector Survive Without Russian Gas?
EU efforts to shore up energy supplies and reduce consumption have lowered the likelihood of natural gas shortages in Europe between late 2022 and early 2023. But sustained high energy prices and demand destruction will likely hurt Europe's economic growth and industrial competitiveness in the medium-to-long term. EU countries approved on Oct. 20 a new package of emergency energy measures aimed at addressing the bloc's energy crisis, the fourth since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. EU leaders agreed on an emergency brake on price spikes through a dynamic price corridor -- allowing the European Commission to work on the development of a new gas price benchmark tied to liquified natural gas (LNG) prices in the meantime -- and to explore the temporary use of a price cap on gas used in electricity generation. Countries also agreed on a voluntary plan to jointly purchase gas and increase leverage in negotiations with global
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Europe
Russia
Economics
Energy
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsOct 25, 2022 | 18:52 GMT
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and members of her newly appointed cabinet attend a debate in Italy’s Chamber of Deputies ahead of the confidence vote on the new Italian government on Oct. 25, 2022.
What to Expect From Italy's New Right-Wing Government
While more protectionist, Italy's new government will largely remain on the path of economic reform, fiscal prudence, and support for sanctions against Russia set out by outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi. Political instability is likely to increase after the winter as intra-coalition rivalries emerge and the popularity of the country's new prime minister starts waning. Italy's new right-wing government led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was sworn in on Oct. 22 following weeks of negotiations between coalition parties to assign key cabinet positions. Her team, unveiled on Oct. 21, includes nine ministers from her far-right Brothers of Italy party, five ministers from each coalition partner (the right-wing Lega and Forza Italia parties), and various technocratic figures.
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Italy
Economics
Politics
GuidanceMay 5, 2022 | 20:20 GMT
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen discusses imposing new sanctions against Russia during a plenary session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, on May 4, 2022.
What to Watch for as the EU Sanctions Russian Oil
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the European Union aims to approve the latest round of sanctions against Russia during the bloc's next Foreign Affairs Council meetings, which are scheduled for May 10 and May 16. But according to Politico, the new measures could be approved even sooner -- potentially as early as May 6. As EU member states discuss, approve and ultimately implement the sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector, there are several key things to watch for in the coming months in order to gauge the embargo's overall impact.
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United States
Europe
Russia
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Energy
Economics
Politics
Energy
On GeopoliticsMar 17, 2022 | 14:59 GMT
A Russian serviceman stands guard by a military truck on Alexandra Land, the largest island in Russia's Franz Josef Land archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, in May 2021.
NATO Tensions Reinforce and Complicate Russia's Arctic Ambitions
The Ukraine invasion has returned NATO's attention to Russia as a strategic threat, which has in turn only fueled Moscow's perception of the Western security bloc as an expansionist force. As a result, the whole of the Russia-NATO contact line has been brought back into play -- including in the Arctic, where thawing ice is unlocking a plethora of natural resources and transit routes. For Russia in particular, new Western sanctions related to Ukraine increase the Arctic's economic and strategic importance. But the added financial strain also increases the complexity of realizing Moscow's ambitious vision for the region.
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Russia
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Energy
Economics
Military & Security
Military & Security
Environment, Science & Technology
Echoes of the Cold War
Russia's Internal Struggle
SnapshotsMar 8, 2022 | 21:39 GMT
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan attends the U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, on Nov. 2, 2021.
Can Tanzania's New President Repair Her Country's Image?
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan is opening up the country's political and media environment in a bid to improve her country's international image, as well as its relations with foreign investors and governments. On March 4, Tanzanian prosecutors dropped terrorism charges against Freeman Mbowe, the chairman of the opposition Party for Democracy and Progress (commonly known as Chadema for its Swahili portmanteau), and ordered his release from prison along with three other defendants. The move is the latest in a series of actions that Tanzania's first female president has taken to restore political freedoms in the country and reverse the iron-fisted policies of her late predecessor, John Magufuli. In a highly publicized event on Feb. 16, Hassan also met with Tundu Lissu -- Tanzania's most prominent opposition leader and Chadema's presidential candidate in 2020 elections -- in Brussels, where Lissu has been in exile since a 2017 assassination attempt. And
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Tanzania
Energy
Economics
Politics
The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa
AssessmentsMar 1, 2022 | 19:34 GMT
People in Moscow line up at ATMs outside a branch of the Russian state-owned Sberbank on Feb. 28, 2022.
The Impact of Western Sanctions on Russia’s Economy
Western sanctions against Russia are threatening deposit runs on Russian banks, plummeting the ruble, encouraging international investors to divest Russian assets, and opening the door to more long-term damage to the Russian economy. Russian President Vladimir Putin likely thought the West would be slow to react to his government's invasion of Ukraine and, if the West did respond, it would be mild because of Europe’s internal divisions and its heavy dependence on Russian energy. But less than a week after Russia launched its invasion, the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Switzerland, Japan and others have begun taking coordinated action to freeze the assets of dozens of Russian individuals and entities and prevent Moscow from accessing its $630 billion pile of foreign exchange reserves, with a substantial portion being rendered illiquid. The sanctions are already causing economic disruptions in Russia and have the potential to harm the country’s
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United States
Europe
Russia
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Energy
Economics
The U.S. and the Balance of Power
Globalization
Russia's Internal Struggle
SnapshotsOct 20, 2020 | 17:49 GMT
A satellite image shows Europe at night.
The U.S. Ramps Up Financial Support to Central and Eastern Europe
U.S. financial support for the Three Seas Initiative shows the White House remains committed to its security and economic engagements in Central and Eastern Europe, with an eye on countering China and Russia’s presence in the region. On Oct. 19, the United States announced that it will contribute $300 million to the Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund, which finances cross-border energy, transport and digital infrastructure projects in the regions between the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Seas, raising its capital base to over $1.3 billion. The United States will use cooperation with the Three Seas Initiative to compete with China and Russia for influence in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as promote its foreign policy agenda in the region (which does not always align with that of the European Union). However, internal divisions among Three Seas Initiative countries will limit the effectiveness of such U.S. influence campaigns by weakening the group’s
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United States
China
Europe
Czech Republic
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Croatia
Poland
Romania
Austria
Slovakia
Slovenia
Hungary
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
The U.S. and the Balance of Power
GuidanceOct 11, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
Indian students form the Chinese character for the name of Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Chennai on Oct. 10, 2019, ahead of a summit between Xi and his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi.
For China-India Ties, the Status Quo Will Do
For two of Asia's most enduring military rivals, the search for harmony is taking center stage in a relationship rooted in decades of mistrust. Chinese President Xi Jinping was set to arrive in India on Oct. 11 for an informal summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Mamallapuram. Xi hosted Modi last year after bilateral ties deteriorated during the 2017 Doklam standoff, in which thousands of Indian and Chinese troops nearly came to blows. For Xi, a preoccupation with U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war as part of Beijing's broader strategic competition with Washington explains why he wants calm with neighbors like New Delhi. And for Modi, a desire to avoid confrontation with China -- the superior military and economic power -- explains why he wishes to sustain high-level dialogue with Xi. Ultimately, however, any dialogue will strive purely to manage tensions, which will only grow in the long run
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China
India
China in Transition
India's Own Worst Enemy
AssessmentsOct 2, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
The sun rises over an LNG terminal at sea.
Pakistan Strives to Switch to Natural Gas
Hoping to quench its economy's growing thirst for energy, Pakistan has turned to several multinational companies for an ambitious expansion of its liquefied natural gas terminals on the Arabian Sea. On Sept. 20, Petroleum Minister Omar Ayub Khan said Pakistan had chosen ExxonMobil, Trafigura, Royal Dutch Shell, Gunvor and Tabeer Energy to build five LNG facilities. Ayub's announcement touches upon a broader plan to boost the country's LNG processing capacity while shifting the economy's reliance away from oil. With a shortfall in domestic production expected to persist as more customers sign on to the grid, Pakistan's burgeoning demand for natural gas will drive ever-more LNG imports in the next few years. And though some might hesitate to invest in Pakistani LNG lest local partners run afoul of a far-reaching (and allegedly politically motivated) anti-corruption campaign, the growth of the country's LNG demand creates major opportunities for international energy companies looking
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Pakistan
Energy
Pakistan: A Military With a Country
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