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SnapshotsNov 9, 2020 | 22:23 GMT
A photo illustration shows banknotes of the Turkish lira currency on Aug. 27, 2018, in Istanbul, Turkey.
Could a Personnel Shakeup in Turkey Help Stabilize Its Economy?
The emerging personnel shakeup among Turkey’s financial and economic leadership indicates growing political pressure on and within the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to fix the country's flagging economy, and could initiate a shift in Turkey’s monetary policy that would be welcomed by markets and investors. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired the central bank governor Murat Uysal on Nov. 7 and replaced him with former finance minister Naci Agbal. Then on Nov. 8, finance minister and Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak resigned via Instagram, which Erdogan accepted on Nov. 9. Turkey’s currency rallied when markets opened on Nov. 9 to 8.1358 lira per $1, but the degree to which the lira will continue to rally and the economy recover will depend on the decisions Ankara’s economic team makes from here, and whether they make a real shift from the last two years of unorthodox intervention and easing. 
PodcastsMay 20, 2020 | 21:36 GMT
RANE Insights: Practicing Safe Cyber Hygiene While Working Remote
David Lawrence sits down with FBI Special Agent Brad Carpenter and former FBI Deputy Director and current President and CEO of Consortium Networks Tim Murphy to discuss best practices for remote work and ways that companies can protect their systems and data in the coming months.
On GeopoliticsMay 10, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A mother takes photos with her baby under cherry blossoms in full bloom in Tokyo, Japan, on March 29, 2015.
The Geopolitics of Postmodern Parenting
During the two months I recently spent away from work to fulfill my demographic duty, I found that most of my conversations with visitors followed the same pattern. The talk quickly turned from the standard cooing over my baby girl to an intensive debate over parental leave: how much time and flexibility to grant new parents in the workforce, how to reconcile career ambitions with the responsibilities of human procreation, how to compensate for the crazy cost of child care and how to boost birthrates. As a white-collar, taxpaying working mother in the United States, I had become one of the statistics I used to pore over as an analyst pondering the implications of aging and shrinking populations. But you don't have to be a parent -- or an analyst, for that matter -- to care about this stuff. In fact, a lot of the global angst today over stagnant economic
AssessmentsApr 13, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A man wearing a protective mask walks in the empty square in front of a cathedral in Locri, Italy, on April 7, 2020.
Southern Europe’s COVID-19 Crisis Is Just Beginning
For many governments in Southern Europe, containing the COVID-19 contagion in the coming weeks may prove to be the easy part. After the immediate health crisis subsides in the region, much bigger economic and political troubles will quickly follow in the second half of the year. Countries including France, Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal will experience deep recessions and severe fiscal problems, which in some cases will be made worse by the return of political instability and the strengthening of nationalist opposition parties. 
AssessmentsMar 24, 2020 | 14:59 GMT
Workers operate a production line of a new material company in Lianyungang, China, on March 23, 2020.
China's Economy Braces for a COVID-19 Double Hit
In China, the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak will drag on 2020 GDP growth as the country endures the twin hits of both the early-year domestic slowdown and the as-yet-unknown drop in overseas demand in key markets. But the country’s high debt levels -- partly fueled by its massive stimulus during the 2008 financial crisis, in addition to the structural slowdown already underway before the outbreak -- means Beijing will hesitate to mirror the large-scale spending being implemented in other virus-ravaged economies, such as the United States, Japan and South Korea. China will now have to choose whether to help buoy its employment and annual growth targets through spending that could jeopardize long-term economic stability.
Senior Analyst for Global EconomicsJan 17, 2020 | 13:08 GMT
Michael Monderer
Michael Monderer

Michael Monderer is Stratfor’s senior analyst for global economics focusing on the intersection between macroeconomics and geopolitics. Mr. Monderer covers issues related to country and political risk, including fiscal and monetary policies, balance of payments and capital flows, international debt, and currencies and exchange rates. Before joining Stratfor he was managing director at the G7 Group, Inc. and subsequently the G20 Group, LLC.  Previously, Mr. Monderer was U.S. Treasury Department's director for international debt policy and senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs, roles in which he negotiated international debt restructuring agreements with more than 60 countries.

AssessmentsJun 3, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
Extinction Rebellion and Planete Amazone activists stage a "die-in" on May 14, 2019, in front of the Grande Arche de La Defense in Puteaux, northwest of Paris.
How a Climate Activist Group Is Following the Occupy Movement's Footsteps
Rising Up, a left-wing activist group based in the United Kingdom, launched its first Extinction Rebellion protest during November 2018, blocking four bridges in London. The group was reportedly founded by former members of the Occupy movement and is managed by Compassionate Revolution Ltd., launched in 2015. It is seeking to replicate that campaign's occupation and direct action tactics. Since that first protest, it has continued to stage small demonstrations across the United Kingdom, and it has increasingly targeted major cities across the world as its ideology has found a receptive audience online. This success makes it highly likely the group will stage additional major protests in hopes of matching or exceeding the London occupation, and may try to hold simultaneous demonstrations in several major cities worldwide.
Partner PerspectivesApr 24, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
Containerships in Saudi Arabia's Jeddah Islamic Port on Dec. 13, 2007.
Year-on-Year Deficits Brewing in Gulf Economies
More spending, low growth and recurring deficits are not a recipe for long-term economic sustainability, but this concoction may be a necessary pill for Gulf states to swallow as the hard work of economic reform sets in.
On SecurityNov 13, 2018 | 10:00 GMT
An employee of Cathay Pacific Airways helps a customer at Hong Kong's international airport on Aug. 7, 2018.
Fines and Lawsuits Are Adding to the Cost of Corporate Data Breaches
Hackers around the world are constantly probing for network vulnerabilities and seem to score a major cyberattack almost weekly. In the past three weeks alone, HSBC Bank of London reported that its U.S.-based accounts were illegally accessed; hackers compromised an Australian military shipbuilder's personnel files; and Hong Kong airline Cathay Pacific confirmed a breach that affected up to 9.4 million passengers. These criminal and state-backed groups are trying to get personal information such as names, phone numbers, addresses, Social Security numbers, and credit card and banking information. They can sell that data to others who exploit it for financial gain, or use it for more targeted attacks – a national security, as well as a corporate, concern. Now governments in Europe and North America are pushing companies harder to shore up their defenses and fining those that are lax. On top of that, those that lose customers' information are increasingly
AssessmentsOct 30, 2018 | 12:17 GMT
The skyline in London is all aglow as the sun sets on Aug. 16, 2018.
Banking After Brexit: Who Will Be the New London?
The United Kingdom's approaching departure from the European Union in March 2019 has raised concerns about how the split will affect London's bustling, heavily influential financial sector. The British government is currently focused on two negotiation topics: making sure that trade in goods remains unaffected by Brexit and ensuring that the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland remains open. The European Union has offered the United Kingdom a comprehensive free trade agreement similar to the one it recently signed with Canada. However, both proposals focus primarily on goods, leaving companies in all service sectors -- and especially the financial sector -- with open questions about Brexit's impact.
On SecurityJul 31, 2018 | 09:00 GMT
As tensions rise with the United States, hackers in Iran are expected to boost their attacks in the coming months.
When It Comes to Cyberattacks, Iran Plays the Odds
The war of words between the United States and Iran appears to be heating up in cyberspace. In recent weeks, the tension has grown palpable as the United States leads the drive to reimpose sanctions on Iran on Aug. 6. U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have traded heated threats with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force. Though both sides are certainly capable of direct physical attacks, conventional warfare is not in their immediate interests. Iran has embraced cyberattacks as part of its asymmetric response to its Middle Eastern rivals and the United States, and this latest round of belligerence will likely be played out through cyber actions. And even though Iran doesn't pose as great a threat as China or Russia, its persistence and reliance on unsophisticated, yet tried-and-true tactics allow it
AssessmentsJul 9, 2018 | 09:00 GMT
Chinese tourists take photographs at Mount Fuji in Japan.
China's Unlikely Weapon: Tourists
Decades of explosive economic growth has handed China numerous tools it can use to exert its influence abroad. Massive defense outlays, foreign direct investment and the sprawling Belt and Road Initiative are the most visible expressions of China's economic might. But amid these earthshaking projects, the Chinese consumer has slowly gained clout. And as the mounting U.S.-China trade tensions have shown, China can and will regulate access to its growing market. Beijing has already brandished the carrot and the stick of access to Chinese consumers for agricultural, luxury and manufactured goods. But one overlooked tactic is its control over how many of its citizens it allows to go abroad and where they can visit. Tourism is an unlikely tool of statecraft, but the massive growth in the number of outbound Chinese travelers means their combined economic weight can have sharp consequences that Beijing will continue to use.
AssessmentsJul 5, 2018 | 09:00 GMT
As it makes changes to its economy, China is intent on ensuring greater control over the entire supply chain for lithium-ion batteries for years to come.
How China Is Muscling In on Lithium-Ion Batteries
From the salt flats of the Atacama Desert in Chile to the savannas of the Congo, the makers and users of the world's batteries are scrambling to secure the vital raw materials needed to produce the lithium-ion cells that will power electric vehicles around the globe. But no battery-makers are more aggressive than those from China, which is working to lock down the entire supply chain for its companies. Meanwhile, the United States will rely on economies of scale to compete in storage-cell manufacturing, turning toward North American raw material producers to ensure supplies whenever possible. Even then, the country will face stiff competition from Chinese investors -- to say nothing of European automobile companies, who will be compelled to increase their reliance on China. Buoyed by support from the highest levels of government, Chinese companies are likely to find few challengers over the next decade and a half as
Contributor PerspectivesJul 2, 2018 | 14:08 GMT
Pedestrians cross Taksim Square in Istanbul, June 28. The poster behind them shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a message that read: "Thank you Istanbul."
The Results of Erdogan's Re-Election
In the run-up to Turkey's recent presidential and parliamentary elections, many analysts and experts warned that the vote would be less than free and fair. Observers on the ground and international organizations such as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe confirmed these suspicions. Though concrete data is elusive on how widespread and systematic the electoral abuses were, as a scholar who has studied Turkey for nearly 20 years, I see enough circumstantial evidence to conclude that the official results of the June 24 elections are questionable.
AssessmentsApr 25, 2018 | 12:00 GMT
The Suncor facility near Fort McMurray, Alberta, extracts bitumen from oil sands in Canada.
In Canada, a Trade War Emerges
Canada has a trade war on its hands -- and it is one entirely of its own making. For the past four months, two of its western provinces, Alberta and British Columbia, have been exchanging blows over an expansion to Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain pipeline, which transports diluted bitumen from Edmonton, Alberta, to Burnaby, British Columbia. On April 16, the Alberta government introduced the Preserving Canada's Economic Prosperity Act, which would give Edmonton the power to cut off all crude oil, natural gas and refined product exports to its neighbor. That move could force British Columbians to pay about 30 percent more for gasoline, among other secondary effects. The willingness of Alberta Premier Rachel Notley to attempt such extreme measures to protect her province's greatest resource highlights the significance of the spat to both provinces -- and to the rest of Canada, and even the United States.
AssessmentsApr 23, 2018 | 09:00 GMT
German Chancellor Angela Merkel talks with U.S. President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron at a G-20 meeting in Hamburg, Germany, in July 2017.
Macron and Merkel Will Put on Their Best Poker Faces With Trump
The leaders of France and Germany are coming to Washington to make sales calls on America's top wheeler-dealer. French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to meet with President Donald Trump on April 23 and 24. Three days later, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be stopping by the White House. Macron and Merkel are expected to discuss trade, Syria, Iran and Russia with Trump. As the leaders of the European Union's two largest countries, they are interested in improving U.S.-EU relations, but Macron and Merkel are not on the same page on several issues, which will make it difficult for them to present a united front. Furthermore, Macron sees an opening to position France as the main intermediary between the United States and the European Union, while Merkel is likely facing a cooler reception.
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