AssessmentsJul 19, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: An EU-China Summit, South Africa's Budget Vote
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
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AssessmentsJul 18, 2025 | 19:23 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 18, 2025 | 19:11 GMT
U.S.: 'Crypto Week' Wraps Up With One Major Legislative Victory, Other Bills Go to Senate
Following the conclusion of the long-anticipated "crypto week," the U.S. House of Representatives celebrated a major legislative victory on July 17 with the passage of the GENIUS Act, which U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign into law by July 18, CBS News reported the same day.
READ MOREAssessmentsJul 18, 2025 | 18:43 GMT
Making Sense of Dollar Weakness and Euro Strength
The dollar's weakness against the euro will likely persist amid ongoing trade and fiscal policy uncertainty in the United States, negatively impacting European exports but also reducing the risk of potentially destabilizing U.S. financial policies. Despite expectations that protectionist U.S. trade policies would lead to an appreciation of the dollar, the U.S. currency has depreciated since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January. Meanwhile, U.S. equity markets have reached or remain close to all-time highs, despite the continued risk of trade-related economic disruption from Trump's sweeping tariff strategy. But while the value of the U.S. currency has fallen, domestic and foreign investor interest in dollar-denominated equities appears to be robust, which is somewhat unusual. Dollar depreciation has also been orderly, suggesting it is driven by a gradual shift by private investors into non-dollar-denominated, including euro-denominated assets.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 18, 2025 | 16:15 GMT
EU, Russia: EU Approves 18th Sanctions Package Against Russia
EU member states approved the bloc's 18th sanctions package against Russia, introducing a revised dynamic oil price cap, expanded banking restrictions, sanctions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines and curbs on imports of oil products refined from Russian crude, Reuters reported on July 17.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 18, 2025 | 16:12 GMT
China, U.S.: Wells Fargo Suspends China Travel After Executive Hit With Exit Ban
U.S. bank Wells Fargo temporarily suspended all corporate travel to China after a company executive was hit with an exit ban, Reuters reported on July 18.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 18, 2025 | 15:50 GMT
U.S., EU: Brussels To Propose Tit-for-Tat Tariff Reduction on Auto Sector
The European Union is offering the United States a tit-for-tat tariff reduction on vehicles that would see the United States reduce its 25% tariff on European cars to 17.5% in exchange for the European Union reducing its tariffs on U.S. cars to 0%, the Financial Times reported on July 17.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 18, 2025 | 15:48 GMT
Brazil, U.S.: Restrictions on Bolsonaro To Further Sour U.S.-Brazil Relations, Fuel Unrest Risks
Brazil's Supreme Court required former President Jair Bolsonaro to wear an ankle monitor and prohibited him from using social media, speaking to other individuals under investigation for an alleged 2022 coup plot, contacting diplomats, and going near embassies, g1 reported on July 18.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsJul 17, 2025 | 21:42 GMT
In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy
Following the rapid collapse of Bashar al Assad's government in December 2024, the United States' strategy in Syria is shifting from isolation to engagement, in the hopes that normalizing Syria will also stabilize it -- and protect Washington's long-term interests. But this engagement remains limited, and it is unclear whether the United States is willing to balance the Turkish and Israeli influence campaigns trying to change Syria's strategic orientation. While the United States is trying to signal that Syria is open for business, this strategy could yield unwanted outcomes if Washington doesn't remain proactively engaged, and instead stays reactive as regional powers, and Syrians themselves, vie for the country's future. Should this happen, the United States may be pulled back in to fight old foes like the Islamic State and al Qaeda (arising from state collapse or balkanization), or forced to reimpose isolation.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 17, 2025 | 20:06 GMT
U.S.: FCC Proposes Ban of Chinese Equipment in Undersea Cables
The Federal Communications Commission plans to ban undersea telecommunication cables containing Chinese technology or equipment from connecting to the United States, according to a statement issued on July 16.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 17, 2025 | 20:03 GMT
Thailand, U.S.: Following Other Deals, Bangkok Races To Beat Tariff Clock
Facing a 36% U.S. tariff threat, Thailand proposed eliminating tariffs and nontariff barriers on 90% of U.S. goods -- up from 60% -- in a last-ditch bid to reach a deal before U.S. President Donald Trump's Aug. 1 deadline, Bloomberg reported on July 17.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 17, 2025 | 20:00 GMT
Syria, Israel: Syrian Forces Withdraw From Sweida
Syrian government forces began withdrawing from their positions in Sweida following another ceasefire agreement with the Druze community, CNN reported on July 17.
READ MORESnapshotsJul 17, 2025 | 19:26 GMT
To Avoid Steeper Tariffs, Indonesia Reaches High-Stakes Trade Deal With the U.S.
While Indonesia's new trade deal with the United States offers short-term tariff relief, the tens of billions of dollars in purchasing commitments and regulatory concessions Jakarta agreed to in exchange for lower levies will expose the country to U.S. leverage that could limit its long-term autonomy. On July 16, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto confirmed his government had reached a wide-ranging trade agreement with the United States following an announcement made by U.S. President Donald Trump the previous day. Under the deal, most Indonesian exports to the United States will be subject to a 19% tariff, significantly lower than the 32% rate Trump had threatened to impose on Aug. 1. In exchange, the United States will receive what Trump called ''full and total'' market access to the Indonesian economy, including exemptions from non-tariff barriers for U.S. goods. As part of the negotiated terms, Indonesia also committed to buy over $34 billion
READ MORESituation ReportJul 17, 2025 | 17:22 GMT
Ethiopia: Security Forces Reportedly Arrest 82 Suspected Islamic State Operatives
Ethiopian authorities said they arrested 82 individuals suspected of links to the Islamic State Somalia Province, which operates in neighboring Somalia's Puntland region, Addis Standard reported on July 16.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 17, 2025 | 17:16 GMT
EU: European Commission Proposes Larger, Reformed EU Multi-Year Budget
The European Commission unveiled a proposal for a 1.98 trillion euro ($2.31 trillion) EU budget for 2028-34 on July 16, a press release shows.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 17, 2025 | 17:06 GMT
Russia, Ukraine: Russia 'Continues To Analyze' Trump's Sanctions Threat
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia "continues to analyze" U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal with Kyiv by early September, Reuters reported on July 17.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 17, 2025 | 15:52 GMT
Mexico: Government to Expand Internet Access, Cut Costs with New Telecom Law
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum signed a new telecommunications law into law, which will take effect on July 17, El Economista reported July 16.
READ MOREAssessmentsJul 17, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
U.S. Naval Update Map: July 17, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
READ MORESituation ReportJul 16, 2025 | 20:33 GMT
China: Country Adopts Licensing Requirements for Certain EV Battery, Lithium Extraction Technologies
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce on July 15 announced a new licensing requirement for the export of eight manufacturing technologies for the electric vehicle battery supply chain, effective immediately.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsJul 16, 2025 | 18:10 GMT
Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2
With the Israel-Iran war now paused with a fragile ceasefire, Gulf states will scramble to exert diplomatic pressure to prevent another round that would prove more costly and escalatory, as these countries understand that a weakened Iran will not bring regional stability. Instead, the Middle East faces a continuation of decades of instability, with Israel's increasingly militarily heavy-handed and diplomatically disengaged policies now at the forefront.
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