GuidanceFeb 13, 2021 | 14:00 GMT
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.
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SITUATION REPORTFeb 10, 2021 | 20:08 GMT
Palestinian Territories: Factions Agree to Hold Long-Delayed Elections in May and JulyPalestinian political factions, including Fatah and Hamas, agreed to hold parliamentary and presidential elections on May 22 and July 31, respectively, during a two-day summit in Cairo, Al Jazeera reported Feb. 9.
READ MOREAssessmentsJan 27, 2021 | 22:45 GMT
As Qatar emerges from isolation, the waning political power and ideological allure of the Muslim Brotherhood will force Doha to rely less on its ties to the Islamist group and more on diplomatic efforts to gain influence abroad. After years of attempting to pressure Qatar to drop its support for the Muslim Brotherhood for fear it could inspire dissent and even revolution in their own countries, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have been easing their blockade on Doha. Qatar, however, has given no assurances that it will change its ongoing sponsorship of the Muslim Brotherhood. But the former blockading countries no longer see the transnational Islamic movement as much of a threat as they used to, with ideological weaknesses and increased security measures now limiting the group’s impact on global Muslim politics.
READ MORESnapshotsJan 8, 2021 | 17:22 GMT
By easing its three-year blockade on Qatar, Saudi Arabia is attempting to improve its troubled relationship with the United States before President-elect Joe Biden takes office. But serious differences between Riyadh and Washington remain, which will continue to create tension in their relationship. On Jan. 4, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt agreed to open their land and maritime borders, as well as their air space, to Qatar. Then on Jan. 5, the same four countries pledged to restore relations with Qatar. The breakthrough came after U.S.- and Kuwait-brokered negotiations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, visited Saudi Arabia for the first time since the blockade began in 2017 to attend the GCC conference, where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman personally greeted him in an event designed to signal a restoration of high-level relations.
READ MORESnapshotsNov 4, 2020 | 17:39 GMT
Turkey is signaling its willingness to use proxies to secure its interests in Syria’s Idlib Province, but the positioning of Russian and Syrian forces will limit the likelihood of deeper Turkish military engagement. In an address to legislators on Oct. 28, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed that a recent attack against Turkish-backed rebel fighters in Idlib was proof that Russia was not interested in peace, as it deliberately undermined the tenuous cease-fire Ankara and Moscow reached in March. Erdogan also reiterated his government’s interventionist policy in Syria designed to clear Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) militants from Turkey’s border.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 1, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A Turkey-brokered agreement to hold the first Palestinian elections in 15 years suggests a new appetite for cooperation between the territories’ staunch political rivals, along with a new mediating role for Ankara, in light of warming Israeli-Arab Gulf relations. On Sept. 23-24, high-level representatives from Palestinian parties Fatah and Hamas met in Istanbul for a two-day discussion hosted by Turkey’s foreign ministry. After the meeting, a Hamas spokesperson announced that the two parties -- which have been engaged in more than a decade of infighting -- had agreed to begin planning elections within six months.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTFeb 6, 2020 | 17:39 GMT
Israel, Palestinian Territories: Heightened Tensions Amid Jerusalem AttacksJerusalem has experienced a notable uptick in violence over the past 24 hours, including a vehicular assault that injured 12 and a shooting that injured a police officer, The Times of Israel reported Feb. 6.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 5, 2020 | 09:00 GMT
Moscow and Ankara’s long-standing alliance of convenience is set to face a trial by fire in northwestern Syria. A Russian- and Iranian-backed Syrian offensive to retake Idlib appears poised to roll back Turkish influence in the area and send a new wave of refugees to Turkey, which is already hosting 3 million Syrians. On Feb. 3, Syrian government shelling killed five Turkish soldiers in Idlib, prompting Turkey to respond with an array of strikes against Syrian government positions. The tit-for-tat strikes herald a new, dangerous phase for the conflict in Idlib, as Syrian government forces, with Iranian and Russian support, push deeper into the province, leading Turkey to respond with the deployment of new forces directly in the path of advancing Syrian troops.
For Turkey, it's a game of high-stakes military pressure to buy time for negotiations to ensure that there is no new flood of refugees to Turkey and
READ MOREAssessmentsJan 29, 2020 | 01:14 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump's long-awaited Israeli-Palestinian peace plan, released Jan. 28, may appear to try and appease both sides, but it will function as more of a one-state solution in disguise. The plan heavily favors Israeli demands and lacked the incorporation of Palestinian input throughout much of its drafting. As a result, it is less of a peace plan and more of a codification of the status quo, which sees Israel as the more empowered actor in now decades-long negotiations. The timing of the plan's release could also serve as an electoral boost for Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, both of whom are facing political challenges as they seek reelection this year, especially because Israel's government made it clear on Jan. 28 that it intends to quickly annex territory the plan proposes for annexation.
READ MOREAssessmentsJan 14, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
For companies active in Iraq, threats to physical security -- whether from a possible military conflict between the United States and Iran, militia violence or a resurgent Islamic State -- aren't the only thing they need to worry about. That's because dark economic times could also be on the way, especially as U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to enact sanctions on Iraq if Baghdad continues to push for a withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq following the U.S. assassination of Qassem Soleimani.
If Baghdad pushes U.S. forces out, the aftermath, bluntly speaking, will be messy. Given that bilateral diplomatic relations would inevitably take a nosedive in such a situation, the United States would most likely impose punishing sanctions on Iraq. And even if such measures don't come to pass, the United States' campaign of maximum pressure on Iran will certainly leave Iraq worse for wear as well.
READ MOREAssessmentsJan 8, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Squeezed by an army on the advance, Libya's Government of National Accord (GNA) has reached for a lifeline across the Mediterranean in Ankara, which is planning to send special forces, drones and other assistance to Tripoli. But while Turkey's military support will help keep the GNA afloat in Tripoli with an eye to ensuring it remains part of any future Libyan political system, it's unlikely to move the needle enough to halt the opposing Libyan National Army's (LNA) offensive on the city entirely. More to the point, LNA leader Khalifa Hifter's foreign backers are likely to respond to Turkey's move by increasing support for the field marshal -- meaning that, in the long run, Ankara's involvement in Libya runs a high risk of encountering mission creep.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTDec 27, 2019 | 18:52 GMT
Libya, Turkey: Ankara-Backed Syrian Rebels Could Shift to Libyan FightTurkish-backed Syrian rebels could soon join Turkey's deployment to Libya to support the Government of National Accord in its battle against the Libyan National Army, Libyan officials told Bloomberg on Dec. 27.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTNov 8, 2019 | 13:05 GMT
Iraq: Masked Gunmen Kill 5 Protesters in BasraMasked gunmen have attacked protesters in the Iraqi city of Basra, killing at least five and wounding more than 100, AP reported Nov. 8. Other cities across the country, including Baghdad, have also been experiencing renewed demonstrations with new outbreaks of violence.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTOct 30, 2019 | 17:18 GMT
Iraq: Fatah Parliamentary Bloc Supports Working With al-Sadr to Stabilize Political SituationThe Iraqi Fatah parliamentary bloc of Shiite militia leader Hadi al-Amiri has said it supports working with Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr to stabilize the current political situation in Iraq, Shafaaq and Rudaw reported Oct. 29.
READ MORESnapshotsOct 27, 2019 | 13:46 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump announced Oct. 27 that a U.S. military operation carried out by the U.S. Army's elite Delta Force with CIA support in Idlib province in northwestern Syria has resulted in the death of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Al-Baghdadi's death, however, will not do much to significantly weaken the wider capabilities of the Islamic State or its affiliates.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTSep 30, 2019 | 19:36 GMT
Syria: U.S. Officials Warn of a Strengthening Al Qaeda AffiliateU.S. and U.N. officials warned that an al Qaeda affiliate in Syria, Hurras al-Deen, is a growing threat to the West, including Americans and U.S. interests, The New York Times reported Sept. 30.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTAug 26, 2019 | 18:57 GMT
Iraq: Parliamentary Group Calls Israeli Airstrikes Against PMU Targets a 'Declaration of War'The Fatah Alliance, an Iraqi parliamentary bloc, has said recent Israeli airstrikes against Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Unit (PMU) targets in Iraq constituted a "declaration of war" and that the United States was responsible for Israel's actions, AP reported Aug. 26.
READ MOREAssessmentsAug 26, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
In 2014, Beji Caid Essebsi became Tunisia's first-ever popularly elected president after the country famously ousted its authoritarian leader of 22 years, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Caid Essebsi was also the country's first leader to respect the new, limited role of the presidency per the country's 2014 constitution. But whether that precedent continues will now be up to his successor.
Following Caid Essebsi's death in July, Tunisia's presidential elections were moved up several weeks to mid-September. The balloting will carry heavy regional significance because as the Arab Spring showed, Tunisia wields an outsized influence on its regional peers, and its results could very well dictate the long-term sustainability of its democracy.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTAug 7, 2019 | 18:54 GMT
Tunisia: Ennahda Party Announces Candidate for Upcoming Presidential ElectionsTunisia's Islamist Ennahda party has said Abdel Fatah Mouru will be its lead candidate in upcoming presidential elections, France24 reported Aug. 7.
READ MOREGuidanceJul 27, 2019 | 20:21 GMT
Read this week's review of the world's most pressing geopolitical events and insight into what the coming week will bring.
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