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AssessmentsApr 15, 2024 | 18:57 GMT
U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C.
Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China
The recent summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida indicates the indispensability of the expanding Japan-U.S. defense partnership to both countries' Asia-Pacific policy agendas and the secondary nature of the United States' ties with South Korea, while new U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict. Biden and Kishida met on April 10 for an hour and a half in a closed-door meeting, followed by a joint press conference at the White House and a state dinner for Kishida and his wife later that night. A joint statement later released by both sides explored the geopolitical, industrial, and defense content of the meeting. On the geopolitical side, much ink was spilled affirming ideological common ground, including a free and open international order; opposing Chinese efforts to change the territorial status
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United States
China
Japan
South Korea
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 8, 2024 | 19:21 GMT
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (center), flanked by two other U.S. officials, is seen during a meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo (not pictured) on the sidelines of the 78th United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York City on Sept. 22, 2023.
What To Watch for During the Inaugural U.S.-Japan-Philippines Summit
A trilateral partnership between the United States, Japan and the Philippines focusing on cyberdefense, joint maritime patrols and supply chain resilience will likely help improve freedom of navigation and economic security in the South China Sea, but it may also raise the risk of trade disputes and conflict with China. U.S. President Joe Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a state visit on April 10, followed by a trilateral summit on April 11 where Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will also be present. The trilateral summit between the United States, the Philippines and Japan will be the first of its kind and will focus on three main areas: national security, economic security and mitigating climate change, with an eye toward institutionalizing cooperation via formal dialogue mechanisms in the medium-to-long term. The summit will likely conclude with the issuance of a joint vision statement laying out each country's
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United States
Japan
Philippines
Cyber
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportApr 4, 2024 | 16:28 GMT
EU, China: Brussels Opens Anti-Subsidy Probes Against Two Chinese Solar Panel Manufacturers
The European Union launched two investigations under its Foreign Subsidies Regulation into Chinese solar panel manufacturers bidding in a public procurement procedure for the construction of a 110 megawatt solar park in Romania, the European Commission revealed in a press release published on April 3.
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China
Europe
Romania
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Quarterly ForecastsMar 25, 2024 | 00:04 GMT
2024 Second-Quarter Forecast
During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.
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Situation ReportMar 22, 2024 | 16:40 GMT
EU: Member States Divided Over Joint Borrowing for Rearmament
EU leaders agreed to mandate the European Investment Bank to update its lending policy and allow for more direct investment into defense during a European Council summit in Brussels, Belgium, but member states remain divided on how to mobilize large funds required to expand the bloc's military-industrial complex and finance weapon deliveries to Ukraine, the Financial Times reported on March 21.
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Europe
Economics
Military & Security
SnapshotsMar 18, 2024 | 17:39 GMT
The Argentine state-owned oil and gas company YPF’s refinery in Berisso, Buenos Aires, is seen on Oct. 18, 2022.
Gauging the Outlook for Energy Reforms in Argentina
In Argentina, political and economic challenges will impede the government's plans to unleash the Vaca Muerta shale formation and the country's full energy production potential by deregulating the oil and gas sectors, at least in the short term. Three months after the libertarian Javier Milei took over as Argentina's president, his plans to overhaul the country's energy sector remain in limbo. In late December, the Argentine government unveiled a so-called ''omnibus bill'' that included more than 600 changes to the country's laws and regulations, covering multiple areas of the economy. The bill included significant reforms in the energy sector, with the goal of liberalizing it and making it more attractive to foreign investors. However, in late February, the government withdrew the omnibus bill ahead of an almost certain defeat in the Chamber of Deputies. Then on March 14, the Argentine Senate voted against a presidential decree with additional reforms to
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Argentina
Economics
Energy
Politics
SnapshotsMar 12, 2024 | 17:59 GMT
The outside of the Portuguese parliament building is seen in Lisbon, Portugal.
In Portugal, a Fragmented Parliament Paves the Way for More Political Instability
A highly fragmented parliament means Portugal will likely enter a period of unstable governments in the coming years, yet any new government is unlikely to abandon a path of fiscal prudence due to significant economic and fiscal constraints. The center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) -- a coalition of conservative parties led by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and that includes two other smaller parties -- won Portugal's snap general election on March 10, securing 79 seats in the country's 230-seat parliament, narrowly ahead of the incumbent center-left Socialist Party (PS) with 77 seats. The right-wing populist Chega party came in third, capturing 48 seats. PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos conceded defeat shortly after the vote, and President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is expected to formally invite AD leader Luis Montenegro to form a government in the coming days. Montenegro, who throughout the campaign repeatedly ruled out an agreement with Chega to
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Portugal
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsMar 8, 2024 | 21:17 GMT
A digital illustration of the Bangladeshi flag.
As the Dust Settles at Home, Bangladesh Turns Its Attention to Foreign Policy
As socio-political turbulence dies down, Bangladesh will focus on deepening its economic and diplomatic ties with the United States, India, Japan and China, to facilitate investment and infrastructure agreements. Following weeks of social and political turbulence between late 2023 and early 2024, the degree of opposition protests and political unrest has stabilized in Bangladesh, enabling the government to pursue its foreign policy goals. In Bangladesh's Jan. 7 election, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina clinched her fourth consecutive term and fifth overall, with the ruling Awami League (AL) party securing nearly 75% of the seats. Despite initial concerns over potential post-election unrest, protests have waned following the detention and crackdown on numerous activists and leaders of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The electoral process was marred by protests and boycotts from the BNP, which accused the AL of rigging the vote. As a result, in the lead-up to the general election,
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United States
China
Japan
Bangladesh
India
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportMar 7, 2024 | 16:58 GMT
Israel, Gaza: Cease-Fire Talks Pause as U.S. Mulls Restrictions on Israeli Arms Use in Gaza
The Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas said its delegation would leave cease-fire negotiations with Israel in Cairo, Egypt, and return sometime during the week of March 11, blaming Israel for refusing to offer concessions toward a permanent cease-fire, a return of refugees and a military withdrawal from Gaza, AP reported on March 7.
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United States
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsMar 6, 2024 | 19:56 GMT
Chinese President Xi Jinping looks on during a ceremony to mark China's tenth Martyrs' Day at Tiananmen Square on Sept. 30, 2023, in Beijing, China.
China Sees Risk Everywhere in Its 2024 Work Report
The Chinese government's annual work report indicates it will resist major economic stimulus and focus on risk mitigation in all areas of governance in 2024, while obscuring information flows about an increasingly insular China. On March 5, Chinese Premier Li Qiang read out the 2024 Government Work Report at the opening of the annual meeting of China's National People's Congress (NPC). The report highlighted the government's accomplishments in 2023, as well as its policy priorities and goals for 2024. Key themes in this year's work report were ''high-quality development,'' political unity around the personage and ideas of President Xi Jinping, and bolstering food and resource security amid a ''complex external environment.'' It stressed that stability was ''of overall importance, as it is the basis for everything we do,'' and highlighted the importance of China's technological self-reliance and boosting public awareness of national security risks. China also released its draft budget
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China
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
On GeopoliticsFeb 15, 2024 | 16:37 GMT
Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?
In 2024, a series of presidential and parliamentary elections will determine the political direction of countries accounting for roughly 40% of the world's population and about half of its GDP. While each of these elections will be different, many of them will see nationalist parties perform strongly thanks to a rhetoric that seeks to mitigate (and in some cases reverse) the effects of globalization. Some of these parties and leaders promote protectionism to shield domestic industries from foreign competition, others are critical of international organizations that they perceive as undermining national sovereignty, and many present immigration as a threat to national identity, security and job opportunities for their country's native populations. Considering the combined economic weight of the countries holding votes this year and the underlying socio-economic trends behind the anti-globalization sentiments, a question comes to mind: how will these elections impact the evolution of globalization in the short-to-medium term? 
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Mexico
United States
China
Vietnam
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsFeb 9, 2024 | 18:55 GMT
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a speech during a political rally in Manila on Jan. 28, 2024.
Tensions Flare Between the Philippines' Current and Former Presidents
In the Philippines, a growing political dispute between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and former President Rodrigo Duterte could reignite secessionist sentiment on the Mindanao island and potentially derail government efforts to open the country to foreign investment and keep close ties with the United States. In early January, the Philippines House of Representatives began a nationwide signature campaign to initiate a People's Initiative to amend the 1987 constitution, distributed mostly through local mayoral offices but also through private activist efforts. Specifically, the petition asks voters whether they support amending the constitution to require both chambers of Congress to vote jointly on constitutional changes. Congress would then vote on lifting caps on foreign ownership of businesses and Filipino natural resources. The Senate, which totals 24 members to the House's 316, is against the initiative, given that it would effectively take away its voting power on such matters. Former President Duterte agrees
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Philippines
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
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