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AssessmentsApr 16, 2024 | 18:59 GMT
A photo of the Somali flag.
Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad
A protracted increase in tensions between Somalia's federal government and the state of Puntland over changes to the Somali Constitution will likely widen the rift between Somalia and Ethiopia and could enable al Shabab to expand its jihadist activity. On March 30, Somalia's bicameral federal parliament approved changes to the first four revised chapters of the country's 15-chapter provisional constitution, with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signing off on the changes on March 31. The revisions strengthen the president's authority and sanction the adoption of direct universal suffrage, among other changes. However, the state of Puntland responded by withdrawing its recognition of the federal government on March 31, claiming that Mogadishu had not appropriately consulted its government about the changes. Puntland added that it would act independently from the federal government until the Somali public approves the constitutional changes in a nationwide referendum. Ethiopian State Minister for Foreign Affairs Mesganu
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Ethiopia
Somalia
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsApr 9, 2024 | 21:21 GMT
Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip.
The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy
Israel's military strategy in the Gaza Strip is more overtly shifting to targeted operations instead of large-scale operations, but Israel's apparent lack of a sustainable governing strategy for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence on the ground. On April 7, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew all but one brigade from Gaza. The same day, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that the Palestinian militant group had been degraded to the point where it no longer ''poses a risk to the citizens of the State of Israel.'' The withdrawal of IDF forces triggered a backlash from the country's right wing, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir threatening to collapse the government if there was no offensive on Rafah. In an effort to push back against the right-wing opposition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on April 8 that ''there is a date'' to attack Rafah and that ''it will happen.''
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
AssessmentsApr 2, 2024 | 19:07 GMT
Mohamed Toumba (R), one of the generals who ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum in July 2023, and military junta spokesperson Amadou Abdramane (L) look on in Niamey, Niger, on Sept. 4, 2023.
What's Next for Niger After the Termination of Defense Cooperation With the U.S.?
Niger's termination of defense cooperation with the United States will likely result in the departure of U.S. troops and pave the way for the deployment of Russian paramilitary personnel in the country, likely resulting in a further deterioration of Niger's security environment in the medium term. On March 16, spokesperson for Niger's military junta Amadou Abdramane announced that Niger was immediately halting bilateral defense cooperation with the United States, adding that the presence of U.S. troops in the country was now illegal. Bilateral defense cooperation notably included a status of forces agreement allowing about 1,000 U.S. civilian and military personnel as well as two military facilities in Niger. One of the facilities is Air Base 201 near Agadez in the center of the country, which is essential to U.S. surveillance and counterterrorism operations in Niger and neighboring Libya.
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Niger
United States
Iran
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 28, 2024 | 21:32 GMT
A law enforcement officer patrols the scene of the terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall concert venue in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, on March 23, 2024.
How Russia Will -- and Won't -- Respond to the Moscow Terror Attack
The Russian government will respond to the Moscow concert hall attack with concrete but limited actions that will not eliminate the threat of future terrorist attacks in the country, while the Kremlin will use the massacre to maintain and potentially increase Russia's options in pursuit of its war in Ukraine. Hours after armed assailants attacked the Crocus City Hall near Moscow, killing over 100 people, the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed responsibility for the assault. Over the past week, however, numerous high-ranking Russian officials -- including President Vladimir Putin -- have alleged Ukraine was involved in the deadly terrorist attack, while downplaying the ISKP threat. On March 25, Putin said the attack fit ''quite logically into the intimidation campaigns that Kyiv is carrying out'' and that Russia was interested in finding who gave the order to conduct the attack, noting that it was the United States that was
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Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportMar 25, 2024 | 20:10 GMT
Russia, Tajikistan, Afghanistan: Kremlin Declines To Acknowledge ISKP Responsibility for Moscow Attack
Speaking at a meeting of the Russian government, Russian President Vladimir Putin said for the first time that "radical Islamists" were behind the March 22 terrorist attack in Moscow, but he otherwise reaffirmed his previous claim that Kyiv may have somehow been involved and suggested that Washington was trying to cover it up, The Moscow Times reported on March 25.
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United States
Ukraine
Tajikistan
Russia
Afghanistan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Quarterly ForecastsMar 25, 2024 | 00:04 GMT
2024 Second-Quarter Forecast
During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.
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SnapshotsMar 22, 2024 | 21:07 GMT
Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following a shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, Russia, on March 22, 2024.
What To Make of the Deadly Terrorist Attack in Moscow
The worst terrorist attack in Russia in decades exposes vulnerabilities in the country’s security and intelligence services, and while it may have been carried out by Islamist extremist or North Caucasian groups, it opens the door for the Kremlin to blame the attack on Ukraine and the West, and to intensify its domestic crackdown on dissent and expand its war efforts against Ukraine. More than 40 people were killed and over 100 were injured in a mass shooting and bombing attack at a large theater on the outskirts of Moscow on March 22, marking the deadliest terrorist incident Russia has seen since the 2004 Beslan school siege, and the deadliest incident in the capital city has seen since the 2002 Nord Ost theater siege. According to Russian authorities, the attack was conducted by at least four individuals, who burst into the Crocus City Hall -- located some 20 kilometers from
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Ukraine
Russia
Afghanistan
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
AssessmentsMar 21, 2024 | 18:37 GMT
Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani speaks during a press conference alongside U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 13, 2023.
How Will the Gaza War Impact Qatar’s Foreign Policy and Its Ties to Hamas?
As Hamas loses control of the Gaza Strip and is suppressed into an insurgency, Qatar will likely expel Hamas' political bureau and align its Palestine policies with the other Gulf Coordination Council members, though Doha will likely use humanitarian aid to maintain its independent foreign policy. Since the onset of the Hamas-Israel war in October, Qatar has adopted an active role in securing the release of hostages and a cease-fire. Earlier in the conflict, Qatar brokered the release of foreign nationals and dual passport holders from Gaza. Qatar subsequently coordinated the weeklong pause in fighting in late November, which saw Hamas release over 100 Israeli hostages in exchange for Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners and allowing for increased humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. Since then, Qatar has tried to broker another deal that would see Israel agree to a temporary cease-fire in exchange for Hamas releasing more of the roughly
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Palestinian Territories
Qatar
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Politics
On GeopoliticsMar 19, 2024 | 19:33 GMT
Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023.
In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions
In the aftermath of Hamas' Oct. 7 assault on Israel, the issue of the ultra-Orthodox's draft exemption from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) -- a perennial political controversy -- has once again grown prominent in public debate. With the country still undergoing an unprecedented military mobilization to maintain its ongoing fight against the Palestinian militant group in Gaza, many Israeli minds are focused on national security matters -- and particularly, whether Israel will have enough able bodies in the future should it maintain its long-standing policy of exempting the country's ultra-Orthodox Jewish community from IDF service. But the issue, at least in terms of military need, may be less about how many soldiers the IDF can draft, and more about what Israel's relationship with its neighbors and rivals is like over the coming years and decades.
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Israel
Military & Security
Politics
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